作者/Author(s): Denny Roy 

網站來源/Source: The Interpreter 

日期/Date: 04/17/2024 

關鍵字/Keywords: 兩岸關係
 

摘要： 

美國預料與中國很快會向台灣宣戰，專家認為習近平已經失去耐心，覺得強制統一是最好的選擇。一些專家預測中國可能會發動一場轉移注意力的戰爭以掩蓋其經濟問題。雖然我們無法真正知道習近平的想法，但對於他的官員來說，台海戰爭並不是一個好選擇。 

  • 雖然中國持續擴大解放軍現代化，但這還是不代表它們能夠入侵成功。此外，美國及其盟友可能會支持台灣抵抗中國。對習近平來說，入侵台灣是一把雙面刃，有可能會破壞區域經濟，危及中國民眾的生計。 
  • 中國可以封鎖台灣港口，但台灣也會進行報復，加劇全球反中情緒。美國也將對中國實施經濟制裁，並幫台灣打破封鎖。
  • 除了統一台灣，習近平還有其他野心，要在中國歷史上留下一筆： 
  1. 恢復中共在中國的主導地位和權威。
  2. 清除中國的「西方」意識形態和價值觀。
  3. 帶領中國從中等收入國家轉型為高收入國家。 
  • 與西方的預測不同，中國的經濟大蕭條減弱了民眾對兩岸統一的熱情。因此，政府在外交政策上更加謹慎，以降低緊張局勢並吸引投資者。
  • 習近平實踐和宣揚的政策與先前的領導人有相似之處，他們沒有明確的時間表，也不希望使用武力來實現台灣的統一。 
  • 習近平目前的策略是遏制台灣獨立，迫使世界堅持「一個中國」原則，並向台灣施壓促使雙方談判。 

 

Summary: 

The US anticipates a war over Taiwan against China soon because American experts assume Xi has grown impatient and feels a forced reunification is the best option. Some experts predict China will launch a diversionary war to conceal its economic problems. Although we cannot read Xi's mind clearly, a war over Taiwan is hardly an attractive suggestion for his government. 

  • Although China expanded and modernized the PLA, it may not have the superiority that could ensure a successful invasion. Further, it is likely the US and its allies will support Taiwan to resist China. An invasion is also a double-edged sword for Xi because it would disrupt the regional economic economy, endangering the livelihood of Chinese civilians. 
  • China can launch a blockade on Taiwanese ports, but Taiwan will retaliate and fuel global anti-China sentiments. The US would also launch economic sanctions against China while helping Taiwan to break the blockade. 
  • Xi has other ambitions apart from reunifying Taiwan to have a legacy in Chinese history: 
  1. Restore the primacy and authority of the CCP in China. 
  2. Clear China from "Western" ideologies and values. 
  3. Transform China's economy from a middle-income to a high-income country. 
  • In contrast to Western predictions, the Chinese economic depression diminished the public's enthusiasm for a Taiwan campaign. Consequently, the government is more careful in its foreign policy to lower tensions and attract investors. 
  • What Xi practices and preaches is similar to his predecessors. Xi did not have a definite timeline, nor did he hope to use force for Taiwan's unification. 
  • Xi's current policies are to deter Taiwanese independence, compel the world to adhere to the "One China" principle, and pressure Taiwan to negotiate with Beijing. 
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