作者/Author(s): Peter Layton 

網站來源/Source: The Interpreter by the Lowy Institute 

日期/Date: 03/21/2024 

關鍵字/Keywords: 灰色地帶侵略

摘要：

灰色地帶侵略是一種經過深思熟慮和計算的衝突升級，而非邊緣危機政策，已達到指定目的。中國利用灰色地帶侵略透過恐懼後果來迫使他人，如果中國真的採取實際暴力行為將會引起嚴重的後果，因此中國大多利用灰色地帶侵略來脅迫他人。然而，中國日益增加的灰色地帶侵略行為，惡化了西太平洋地區的和平與穩定，甚至可能引發意外衝突。而且各國可能會習慣中國的灰色地帶侵略，如果中國的行動變得更加頻繁，這些國家的警惕性和恐懼可能會下降。 

  • 中國開展了各種海陸空灰區行動，以維護其地區主導地位，或削弱鄰國的領土完整。
  • 中國灰色地帶行動的受害者在回應時大多持有持謹慎態度，試圖在不過度反應的情況下緩解緊張局勢。然而，他們的回應並沒有改變中國的行為。 
  • 因此，各國應該以牙還牙。有一份指南可以指導各國如何報復中國的灰色地帶行動。 
  • 雖然報復中國可能會導致軍事升級和意外風險，但這也意味著中國的灰色地帶行動失敗。各國也可藉機向中國發出強烈訊號，要求其降低灰色地帶活動的規模。 
  • 各國曾對中國灰色地帶侵略的行為坐以待斃，但這種作法只會讓它更肆無忌憚。因此，各國應該在中國製造新常態衝突之前阻止它。 
​​​​​​​Summary: 
Grey-zone aggression is a calculated conflict escalation short of brinkmanship to achieve an ulterior motive. China uses grey-zone aggression to compel others through fear of consequences if China resorts to actual violence. Yet, China's increasing use of grey-zone aggressions deteriorates the peace and stability in the Western Pacific and may provoke accidental conflicts. Further, countries may grow accustomed to Chinese grey-zone aggression and will be less wary and less fearful if Chinese actions become more frequent. 
  • China conducted various air, sea, and land grey-zone operations to assert its regional dominance or chip away at the territorial integrity of neighboring countries. 
  • Victims of Chinese grey-zone operations are cautious in their response, trying to de-escalate tensions without over-responding. However, their responses did not change China's behaviors. 
  • Therefore, countries should reciprocate Chinese actions. There is a guide for countries to retaliate against Chinese grey-zone practices. 
  • Although reciprocation may lead to military escalation and unintended risks, it also means failure for China and sends a strong signal to China to scale down its grey-zone activities. 
  • The inaction over Beijing's grey-zone aggression in the past only allows it to act more bravely. Therefore, it is time to stop China before it creates a new normal. 
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