作者/Author(s): Matt Ferchen 

網站來源/Source: Lawfare 

日期/Date: 04/07/2024 

關鍵字/Keywords: 經濟

摘要：

經濟上的相互依存曾是中美外交關係的基石，但現在兩國都從安全角度看待雙邊關係。他們擔心相互依存會導致惡性競爭或保護主義，甚至增加對方的經濟影響力。然而，過度安全化也是一把雙刃劍，可能會損害與美國和中國有商業關係的國家。為了戰勝中國，美國必須向其盟友、潛在夥伴甚至對手表明，其經濟安全措施並不完全只有脅迫性，也能創造可持續的相互依存關係。 

  • 拜登政府延續了川普對中國的經濟政策，甚至創造了一種新型的經濟戰略，以「防範中國」國際經濟，以贏得美中貿易戰。 
  • 鄧小平及其繼任者將經濟發展視為中國安全和穩定的前提。然而，自習近平擔任中國領導人以來，他堅持認為安全在經濟發展中佔有主導地位。自那時以來，北京和中國共產黨加強了對國內工業部門的控制，並利用胡蘿蔔與棍子來實現外交政策目標。在當前國內和國際經濟挑戰中，習近平和中國共產黨領導層將繼續把經濟安全放在首位。
  • 美國在經濟安全方面的做法也受到一些質疑： 
  1. 一些學者擔心，美國將經濟相互依存武器化的頻率太高，將破壞美國的影響力和形象。 
  2. 安全官員可能會主導經濟政策，忽視經濟相互依存的好處。 
  3. 亞洲的經濟脫鉤可能會削弱亞洲的和平與穩定。 
  • 在中國，也有人擔心經濟過度安全化可能會導致中國像冷戰期間的蘇聯那樣崩潰，並損害國內的社會經濟發展。 
  • 其他國家則尋求一種更加中立的方式來增強其經濟敏感性和脆弱性，希望在保持區域經濟一體化的同時減少經濟相互依存的脆弱性。
Summary: 
Economic interdependence was a cornerstone of the US-China diplomatic relations, but now they view their ties from a security perspective. They are worried that their mutual interdependence would expose them to undesired influence or rivalry, leading to more protectionist measures while increasing their economic leverage. However, over-securitization is a double-edged sword and may harm countries with commercial ties to the US and China. To prevail over China, the US must demonstrate to its allies, potential partners, and even rivals that its economic security measures do not rely solely on coerciveness but also create sustainable interdependence. 
  • The Biden administration continued Trump's combative economic policies towards China and even created an improvised economic statecraft to "China-proof" the international economy to win in an economic competition with China. 
  • Deng Xiaoping and his immediate successors prioritized economic development as a precondition for China's security and stability. However, since Xi took the Chinese leadership, he insisted that security is predominant in economic development. Since then, Beijing and the CCP tightened their grip on the domestic industrial sector and used a combination of carrots and sticks to achieve their foreign policy aims. Amid the current domestic and international economic challenges, Xi and the CCP leadership would continue to prioritize economic security. 
  • There had been some pushbacks in the US approach to economic security: 
  1. Some scholars are worried that the US's increasing use of weaponized interdependence would undermine the US influence and image. 
  2. Security officials may take the lead in economic policies, ignoring the benefits of economic interdependence. 
  3. Economic decoupling in Asia may erode peace and stability in Asia. 
  • In China, there are also concerns that over-securitization of the economy may lead to the collapse of China akin to the Soviet Union during the Cold War and may undermine domestic socio-economic development. 
  • Other countries sought a more neutral approach to boost their economic resilience and security. They seek to reduce the vulnerabilities of economic interdependence while maintaining regional economic integration. 
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