作者/Author(s): Hal Brands and Zack Cooper 

網站來源/Source: Center for Strategic and International Studies 

日期/Date: 03/12/2024 

摘要：

在過去十年間，中國的軍事擴張和現代化，特別是在A2/AD能力方面，削弱了美國在第一島鏈的軍事投射。五角大樓修訂了其軍事準則，以應對不斷上升的中國威脅，保護西太平洋地區的合作夥伴。然而，該戰略也有一些缺點，軍方和文人必須與盟國協調共同解決問題。 

  • 中國持續增加軍事預算和軍事技術突破，顛覆了美國在第一島鏈的地位。美國無法再輕易地將其力量投射到中國附近；因此，它需要一種新的方法來嚇阻中國。 
  • 由於預算限制，五角大樓的新方法側重於更具彈性和多樣化的不對稱能力，旨在防止中國將軍事力量投射到西太平洋之外，嚇阻中國讓其不敢攻擊台灣。
  • 為推進新戰略，美國採取了以下行動：
  1. ​​​​​​​確保或擴大了美國對友好西太平洋國家軍事基地的訪問權，增加其部隊的生存能力。 
  2. 投資大量小型廉價致命武器，補強現有的傳統平台。
  3. 修訂作戰思維，在衝突期間保持其作戰力量。 
  4. 加強與西太平洋關鍵盟友的雙邊軍事聯盟。 
  • 傳統戰略仍是阻礙解放軍行動的關鍵。新的作戰準則主要是補充，有效減少美國的損失，並以可接受的代價擊敗中國。 
  • 新戰略包含兩個部分：一個分散的部隊，具有較高彈性與韌性，主要防止中國果斷實現其目標，另一支部隊則負責擊敗剩餘敵軍。美國的最終目標是化解當下衝突，為其他政策贏得足夠的時間，迫使中國撤軍。
 
Summary: 
China's military expansion and modernization over the past decade, especially in A2/AD capabilities, diminished the US's force projection in the first island change. The Pentagon revised its military doctrine to counter the rising China threat and to protect partners in the Western Pacific. However, the strategy comes with dilemmas that military and civilian leaders must address and coordinate with allies. 
  • China's increasing military budget and military-technological breakthrough upended the US's position in the first island chain. The US could no longer easily project its power to China's proximity; therefore, it needs a new approach to deter China.
  • Due to budget constraints, the Pentagon's new approach focuses on more resilient and diversified asymmetric capabilities to prevent China from projecting its military power out of the Western Pacific and deter it from attacking Taiwan.
  • The US did the following to advance its new strategy:
  1. ​​​​​​​The US secured or expanded its access to military bases in friendly Western Pacific countries to increase the survivability of its forces. 
  2. The Pentagon invested in a large number of small and cheap lethal weapons that can complement existing traditional platforms. 
  3. The US is revising its warfighting concepts to preserve its combat power during a conflict. 
  4. The US reinforced bilateral military alliances with key allies in the Western Pacific. 
  • Traditional platforms are still critical to impeding PLA operations. The new doctrine is a complementary strategy to reduce the US's losses and defeat China at an acceptable cost. 
  • The new strategy encompasses two parts: a dispersed force that is resilient to prevent China from achieving its goals decisively and a follow-on force that defeats remaining Chinese combatants. The ultimate aim for the US is to neutralize immediate conflict and obtain enough time for other policies to compel China to withdraw. 
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