作者/Author(s): Robert A. Manning 

網站來源/Source: Foreign Policy 

日期/Date: 04/05/2024 

關鍵字/Keywords: 外交、發展中國家、國際秩序

摘要：

金磚國家似乎是美國主導自由秩序的可敬對手，但其成員國有不同的國家利益，中國也有不足之處。 

  • 中國將金磚國家設想為以中國為中心，替代國際貨幣基金組織和世界銀行。 
  1. 許多發展中國家加入金磚國家是因為參與一帶一路倡議，並對美國或G7在全球經濟中的主導地位感到不滿，但這不代表他們認同中國新金融秩序的野心。 
  2. 雖然金磚國家新開發銀行的目標是去美元化，但其大部分貸款目前仍以美元計價，其中一些成員國甚至存在債務違約的風險。
  3. 與人民幣或其他本地貨幣的貨幣互換可以隔絕金磚國家免受另一次全球金融危機的影響，但只要中國持續控制其貨幣，它不太可能取代美元。
  4. 總得來說，發展中國家加入金磚國家是為了以較低的成本獲得微薄好處，但在一定程度上也是為了向西方表達不滿。 
  • 美國的安全保護傘和進入其開放市場是支撐當前美國經濟和政治體系、實現全球增長和穩定的關鍵因素。 
  • 雖然美國自由秩序賦予了美國霸權地位，但所有參與者也跟著受益。然而，美國對各種國內和國際問題管理不善，導致其在發展中國家信譽受損。 
  • 「以中國為中心」的秩序願景類似於美國模式，但它提供的安全保證少，外交貢獻不夠顯著，市場較不開放，也無法匹敵美國與其他國家的軟實力。 
  • 與美國一樣，中國也開始表現出原則與實際行為之間落差極大的虛偽行為。 
Summary: 
BRICS seems to be a viable competitor to the US-led liberal order, but its members have varying national interests and China has its shortcomings. 
  • China envisioned BRICS as a Sino-centric alternative to the IMF and World Bank.  ​​​​​​​
  1. Yet, many developing countries join BRICS due to involvement in the BRI and resent the dominance of the US or G7 in the global economy. They may not share China's ambition of a new financial order.
  2. Although the BRICS New Development Bank has a goal of de-dollarization, most of its lending is still in US dollars and some of its members have risks of debt defaults. 
  3. Currency swaps with yuan or other local currencies can insulate BRICS members from another global financial crisis, but it is unlikely it will replace the US dollar as long as China controls its currency. 
  4. In short, developing countries join BRICS to gain modest benefits at low costs but to a certain extent, to signal their displeasure to the West. ​​​​​​​
  • US security umbrella and access to its open market are the key ingredients that supported the current US economic and political system and enabled growth and stability worldwide. 
  • Although the US liberal order gave the US hegemonic status, it also benefitted all participants. However, the US is suffering from credibility issues among developing countries due to mismanagement of various domestic and international problems. 
  • China's vision of a Sino-centric order resembles the US model, but it offers few security guarantees, does not have significant diplomatic contributions, has a less open market, and cannot match the US or other countries' soft power. 
  • Like the US, China is also becoming a hypocrite with gaps between its principles and actual behavior. 
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