作者/Author(s): Robert A. Manning 

網站來源/Source: Foreign Policy 

日期/Date: 04/05/2024 

關鍵字/Keywords: 外交、發展中國家、國際秩序 

摘要：

雖然整體概念還不明確，但可以肯定的是中國渴望主導一個沒有美國的強大全球秩序。但對於發展中國家來說，就算美國主導的體系因承諾失敗而搖搖欲墜，他們也不一定想要一個由中國主導的「後美國」全球體系。中國模式對某些國家很有吸引力，但迄今為止他還是一種理想，沒有取得重大成就。

  • 中國不願介入地區或全球主要危機，並對鄰國抱有敵意，反而加強美國的盟邦和亞洲內部合作。
  • 中國主導的倡議對全球南方國家有吸引力，因為支持它不需要具體的成本或承諾，但拒絕它可能會讓中國不高興。此外，雖然不少國家可能抱怨美國的安全架構，但未必希望美國中止安全承諾。 
  • 據稱，中國呼籲互不侵犯、互不干涉、尊重主權、和平解決衝突。然而，隨著中國全球影響力增長，它變成了具有「中國特色」的互不干涉，例如，中國對烏克蘭危機保持沉默、戰狼外交、經濟脅迫，或試圖封殺批評中國的言論。 
  • 中國成功促成了低風險的斡旋，但對全球重大危機並無實際影響，更多是為了表現中國的全球影響力。 
  • GDI或許是最重要的倡議，可以合法化北京的全球領導地位。 
  1. 中國的一帶一路項目橫跨150個國家，發展經驗豐富，是實現聯合國 2030 年永續發展目標的重要候選國。 
  2. 然而，中國國內的金融危機和一帶一路貸款方不斷增加的債務，限制了GDI的實施，迫使中國將一帶一路重心轉移到IT連接和綠色技術上。 
  3. 中國也沒有實際的措施來解決一帶一路債務問題。 
 
Summary: 
China yearns to lead an ambitious non-US global order, although the overall concept is vague. It is doubtful whether the developing countries want a China-led post-US future, even though the US-led system is crumbling due to failed promises. The Chinese model is attractive to some countries, but so far, it is more of an aspiration without significant achievements. 
  • China's reluctance to intervene in regional or global major crises and hostility to its neighbors reinforced US alliances and intra-Asian cooperation.
  • Chinse-led initiatives appeal to the Global South because supporting it does not entail specific costs or commitments, but rejecting it may displease China. Further, some countries may complain about the US security model but may not want it to cease. 
  • China purportedly calls for non-aggression, non-interference, respect for sovereignty, and peaceful resolution of conflicts. Yet, as China's global influence grew, it became non-interference with Chinese characteristics, for example, China's silence on the Ukrainian crisis, wolf-warrior diplomacy, economic coercion practices, or attempts to shut out criticisms of China. 
  • China succeeded in brokering low-risk mediation but had no practical impact on major global crises and is more of a performance of Chinese global influence. 
  • The GDI is perhaps the most significant initiative that could legitimize Beijing's global leadership.  ​​​​​​​
  1. China's BRI projects that span 150 nations and experience in development make it a primary candidate to realize the UN's 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development.  
  2. However, China's domestic financial crisis and ballooning debt from BRI lenders limit the implementation of the GDI, forcing China to downsize the BRI centers on IT connectivity and green technology. 
  3. China also did not make realistic attempts to alleviate the BRI debt problems. 
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