作者/Author(s): Daniel H. Rosen and Logan Wright 

網站來源/Source: Foreign Affairs 

日期/Date: 03/27/2024 

關鍵字/Keywords: 經濟


摘要：
中國不僅沒有願意改革國內經濟失衡，甚至可能是缺乏改革能力。 
  • 中國必須鼓勵國內消費，減少房地產投資，以重新平衡國內經濟，減少貿易順差。然而，中國並不具備改革的條件。它的稅收很少，主要來自製造業或企業的增值稅，而不是個人收入和國內消費。突然轉成以消費為基礎的經濟會削弱北京收稅的能力，因此也會削弱執行政策的能力。 
  • 雖然習近平在掌權時承認了稅收改革的問題，國際貨幣基金組織也提出了改革建議，但政府仍然延續著過時的增長模式。 
  • 中國在更新工業政策方面能力不足，即使它屈服於西方壓力減少政府補貼，也會面臨地方政府在保持就業水平和確保金融穩定方面的壓力。 
  • 中國無法及時解決其日益擴大的貿易順差和經濟問題，但其不作為也非常令人擔憂。即使其他國家有正當理由採用貿易保護政策，中國可能也會與其他發展中和先進經濟體發生衝突。
  • 無論中國是否有意為之，中國的貿易失衡對世界來說都是不可持續的，如果其他經濟體開始咄咄逼人地進行報復，中國也不應感到驚訝。中國也可能會拒絕任何外國提出的解決貿易失衡問題的建議，而對中國產品加徵關稅可能不會奏效。
Summary: 
China not only showed reluctance to reform its domestic economic imbalances, but it may lack the ability also. 
  • China must encourage domestic consumption and decrease investment in real estate to rebalance its domestic economy and reduce its trade surplus. 
  • However, China is not in a position to reform. It collected little tax revenues that originated mainly from value-added tax on manufacturing or businesses, not individual income and domestic consumption. A sudden reform to a consumption-based economy would undermine Beijing's ability to collect tax revenues and, thus the ability to execute policies. 
  • Although Xi admitted the tax reform problems when he took the administration, the government continued its outdated growth model despite reform recommendations from the IMF. 
  • China faces barriers in updating its industrial policies even if it yields to Western pressure of reducing government subsidies because local governments would face pressure in maintaining employment levels and ensuring financial stability. 
  • China can't address its widening trade surplus and economic problems promptly, but its inaction is worrisome. China may head to confrontation with other developing and advanced economies, even if other countries have legitimate reasons to introduce protective trade policies. 
  • Whether China is deliberate or not, its trade imbalances are unsustainable for the world and should not be taken aback if other economies start to retaliate aggressively. China may also reject any foreign proposals to address trade imbalances while tariff hikes on Chinese products may be ineffective. 
 
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