作者/Author(s): Desmond Lachman 

網站來源/Source: American Enterprise Institute 

日期/Date: 03/14/2024 

關鍵字/Keywords: 經濟

摘要：

中國政府相信他們仍然可以達到每年5%的經濟增長目標，這也是習近平集中經濟決策並異議的理由。然而，習近平的決定將推遲中國迫切需要的經濟改革，使其無法解決經濟失衡問題，也無法將通貨緊縮壓力輸出到他國。 

  • 過量的高儲蓄和高投資造成了中國如今經濟失衡的危險局面。雖然在經濟增長的初始階段，這些政策是必要的，但當中國成為第二大經濟體時，這些政策就不再奏效了。此外中國若出口其過剩產能，也會招致美國的懲罰。 
  • 中國甚至放任房地產和信貸市場泡沫等危險狀況。 
  • 習近平的清零政策和對高科技行業的過度管制不僅加劇了中國的經濟問題，還驅使外國投資者遠離中國市場。 
  • 長期不平衡的經濟增長導致中國大型房地產開發商拖欠債務，放棄未完工的房地產項目。房地產泡沫導致房地產銷售減少、價格下降、地方政府徵不到房產稅，影子銀行系統面臨巨大壓力。
  • 當其他國家正在對抗通貨膨脹時，中國卻面臨通貨緊縮，這導致中國更難解決債務問題。 
  • 中國也沒有一個明確的計劃來解決其經濟不平衡問題，這可能導致中國經濟失落的十年。 
  1. 其他國家可能不會依賴中國作為經濟增長的主要動力或收入來源。 
  2. 中國可以通過降低出口價格來幫助其他國家對抗通脹。
  • 美國聯準會應改革其貨幣政策，避免長期維持高利率，防止美國經濟陷入困境。 
 
Summary: 
The Chinese government believes it can still reach the 5% annual economic growth target, justifying Xi's effort to centralize economic decision-making and suppress economic debates. Yet, XI's decision would delay the urgent economic reforms needed to address economic imbalances and the possibility of exporting deflation to the rest of the world. 
  • Unsustainably high savings and investments caused China's dangerous economic imbalances. Although they were necessary during the initial stages of economic growth, the policy no longer worked when China became the second-largest economy. Further, the US would punish China for exporting its excess capacity problem. 
  • China also allowed a property and credit market bubble to form dangerously. 
  • Xi's zero-COVID policy and over-regulation of the high-technology sector not only exacerbate China's economic problems but also drive away foreign investors from the Chinese market. 
  • The long-term unbalanced economic growth caused major Chinese property developers to default on their debts and abandon uncompleted real-estate projects. The real-estate bubble also caused decreased property sales, reduced prices, difficulties for the local government collecting property taxes, and stresses to the Chinese shadow banking system. 
  • While other countries are combatting inflation, China is experiencing deflation, making resolving its debt problems more difficult. 
  • China also does not have a coherent plan to resolve its economic imbalances, which may lead to a lost economic decade. 
  1. Other countries may not rely on China as the main engine of economic growth or revenue resource. 
  2. China may help countries fight inflation by lowering Chinese export prices. 
  • The US Federal Reserve should revamp its monetary policy to avoid keeping interest rates high for the long term and prevent a US economic hard landing. 
 
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