作者/Author(s): Meia Nouwens and Fenella McGerty 

網站來源/Source: The International Institute for Strategic Studies 

日期/Date: 03/08/2024 

關鍵字/Keywords: 國防、軍事預算 

摘要：

中國如今面臨經濟增長放緩且資源競爭白熱化，但其仍於 2024 年全國人民代表大會上宣布國防預算將增長 7.2%。
 

  • 中國在過去30年間不斷提高軍事預算，雖然國防預算約占中國GDP1.25%，仍然低於美國，但中國正在縮小與美國的國防預算差距。
  • 雖然我們尚不清楚中國將如何使用2024年國防預算，但專家預計中國在2027年前將持續增強應對潛在台海衝突的能力，並在2035年前完成軍事現代化。中國的鄰國也增加了國防預算，以應對中國日益增長的地區影響力和侵略性。 
  • 高額國防預算除了用來改善人員培訓、完善國防工業基地、加強國防動員和投資於邊境防禦技術之外，可能也要解決貪汙腐敗造成的採購問題。 
  • 然而，人事任命不足將影響軍事決策，並暴露出腐敗問題導致的領導層不信任。
  • 高額的軍事預算也將面臨來自其他重要領域的資源競爭，如科技、食品安全、教育、國內安全和支付公共債務利息。 
  • 中國預計2024年要實現5%的實質GDP增長，但國際貨幣基金組織預測認為並不樂觀。此外，短期內軍事預算增長超過GDP增長的情況不可能一直持續下去，中國現在仍遭受經濟困難和內部預算問題。 

Summary: 
At the 2024 National People's Congress, China announced a 7.2% rise in its defense budget despite a slowing economy and competition from other priority areas. 
  • Over the past 30 years, China has constantly raised its military budget. Although the amount is around 1.25% of the Chinese GDP and is still below the US's defense budget request, China is closing its defense budget gap with the US. 
  • Although it is unknown how China will spend its 2024 military budget, experts expect China will enhance its capabilities for a potential Taiwan conflict by 2027 and complete military modernization by 2035. Chinese neighbors also increased their defense budgets to counter China's growing regional influence and aggressiveness. 
  • Apart from improving personnel training, refining the defense-industrial base, strengthening national defense mobilization, and investing in frontier defense technologies, the high defense budget may be appropriated to resolve procurement problems caused by corruption. 
  • However, the lack of personnel appointments will affect military decision-making and expose a possible lack of confidence in the leadership amid the corruption problems. 
  • The higher military budget faces stiff contest from other priority areas such as science and technology, food security, education, domestic security, and government debt interest repayment. 
  • China expects a 5% real GDP growth for 2024, but the IMF is less optimistic. Further, a real defense budget growth that outpaces GDP may be unsustainable in the short term, given that China is facing economic difficulties and internal budget problems. 
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