作者/Author(s): Mick Ryan 

網站來源/Source: Foreign Affairs 

日期/Date: 02/05/2025 

關鍵字/Keywords: 軍事


摘要：
俄烏戰爭爆發兩年後，雙方進入了一場適應競賽，試圖學習提升其軍事效能。雖然烏克蘭在戰爭初期快速適應，但俄羅斯也不落人後，從失敗中吸取教訓並改革整體軍事戰略，這是關乎勝利的重要事項。在這場曠日費時的衝突中，俄羅斯可以持續學習和適應，建立一支更有效、更現代化的作戰部隊。 
  • 一開始，俄羅斯的指揮控制結構很分散，但他們很快調整成統一協調的方式，從2022年中期至今已經取得多項成果 
  • 俄羅斯調整了近戰能力，在前線使用未經訓練的士兵，消耗烏克蘭人的體力，然後再由熟練的部隊跟進攻擊。 
  • 俄羅斯將其防線調整為縱深防禦，提高了監視和反擊能力。 
  • 在車輛損失慘重後，俄羅斯改成籠式裝甲，以阻擊烏克蘭的進攻並減少損失。俄羅斯正在考慮在其裝甲車出口中提供籠式裝甲。
  • 雖然烏克蘭在衝突初期的無人機戰爭中占上風，但俄羅斯現在擁有的無人機數量超過了烏克蘭。俄羅斯還將無人機融入各種作戰環節，有效阻止了烏克蘭的反攻。 
  • 俄羅斯的電子戰經改良後，成功地使烏克蘭的精確武器失效，阻礙烏克蘭的通訊。 
  • 俄羅斯為滿足戰時需求，改變國防工業綜合體，並從友好國家採購武器彈藥，以求在數量上超過烏克蘭。 
  • 目前，烏克蘭目前在遠程打擊和海上打擊能力方面仍優於俄羅斯，但俄羅斯未來可能會加強這些能力。 
  • 俄羅斯極強的適應能力，使其在政治上處於有利地位。為了阻止俄羅斯取得獲勝，烏克蘭還必須透過跨部門交流經驗教訓，消除體制障礙，快速學習和適應。西方應幫助烏克蘭確定適當的戰略變化，並繼續向烏克蘭提供先進武器。 
Summary: 
Two years into the Russo-Ukraine War, both sides are going into an adaptation competition, attempting to learn and improve their military effectiveness. Although Ukraine adapted quickly during the early stages of the war, Russia learned from its failures and is reforming its overall military strategy, which is crucial to victory. Russia can learn and adapt more in this prolonged conflict and build a more effective and modern combat force. 
  • Russia's command-and-control structure was initially fragmented, but it modified it into a unified and coordinated approach, leading to several gains since mid-2022. 
  • Russia modified its close combat capability by using untrained soldiers at the frontlines to exhaust Ukrainians before following up with attacks from skilled troops. 
  • Russia adapted its defenses into deep defensive lines with improved surveillance and counterattack capabilities. 
  • After suffering heavy vehicle losses, Russia improvised its armor in the form of cope cages to blunt Ukrainian attacks and reduce losses. Russia is considering offering cages in its armored vehicle exports. 
  • Although Ukraine had the upper hand in drone warfare early in the conflict, Russia now has more drones than Ukraine. Russia also incorporated drones into various warfighting aspects, effectively stopping Ukraine's counteroffensive. 
  • Russia's improved electronic warfare succeeded in making Ukrainian precision weapons ineffective and impeding Ukraine's communications.
  • Russia changed its defense industrial complex to meet wartime demands and procured weapons and ammunition from friendly countries to outnumber Ukraine.
  • Although Ukraine is still better than Russia in long-range strikes and maritime strike capabilities currently, Russia may adapt to them in the future. 
  • Russia's success in adaptation makes the political calculus favorable to it. To prevent Russia from winning, Ukraine must also learn and adapt fast by exchanging lessons across units and removing institutional barriers. The West should help Ukraine to identify suitable strategic changes and continue providing Ukraine with advanced weapons. 
 
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