作者/Author(s): Graham Allison 

網站來源/Source: Foreign Affairs 

日期/Date:01/16/2024 

關鍵字/Keywords: 國際政治 


摘要：
2017至2021川普政府在任時，動搖了美國的全球領導地位。隨著川普宣布競選新一任總統時，全球各國都開始為可能的第二個川普政府制定外交政策選項。 
  • 一些國家正在考慮「川普選項」—暫停目前的政策作為，期望與川普政府談判達成更好的協議。 
  1. 例如，普丁可能會推遲俄烏僵局，希望從川普那裡得到更好的交易條件，而拜登不會同意。 
  • 其他國家則選擇「川普避險策略」—尋找避險的方法，擔心川普的連任會給他們帶來更糟糕的政策選擇。 
  1. 川普在上屆任期內曾多次威脅歐洲各國退出北約，破壞了歐美長期以來的軍事同盟關係。歐盟正在找尋更多選擇與機會，防止類似事件發生。 
  • 川普提倡美國開採煤炭的作法，將使已經失敗的COP28氣候變化倡議完全無效。
  • 川普目前強調一旦當選，他將對所有國家徵收更多進口關稅，並退出《印度-太平洋繁榮經濟架構》，這可能會進一步顛覆國際貿易秩序。雖然川普的舉措可能會保護美國的經濟利益，但它們可能會瓦解以規則為基礎的貿易秩序。
Summary: 
Trump's presidency from 2017 to 2021 was marred with chaos that undermined US global leadership. As Trump is bidding for reelection, the world is preparing foreign policy options to deal with a possible second Trump administration. 
  • Some countries are considering "Trump-put"- pausing their policy choices with the expectation to negotiate better deals with the Trump administration. ​​​​​​​
  1. For instance, Putin may delay the stalemate in Ukraine to obtain better deals from Trump, which Biden would not agree to. ​​​​​​​
  • Other countries opting for "Trump-hedge"- looking for ways to hedge from Trump's administration, fearing his reelection will leave them with worse policy options. ​​​​​​​
  1. In his previous tenure, Trump repeatedly threatened the European community to withdraw from NATO, undermining the long-standing US-Europe military alliance. The EU is considering its options to prevent similar incidents from happening. 
  • ​​​​​​​Trump's advocation of US coal extraction will render the already failing COP28 climate change initiative completely useless. 
  • Trump may further upend the international trading order as he threatens more import tariffs from all countries and withdraws from the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework for Prosperity once elected. Although Trump's initiatives may protect US economic interests, they may collapse the rule-based trading order. 
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