作者/Author(s): Parag Khanna
網站來源/Source: Foreign Policy
日期/Date:01/20/2024
關鍵字/Keywords: 一帶一路、供應鏈、經濟
摘要：
最近胡塞武裝對紅海海運的襲擊導致海上運輸停滯，迫使運營商將航運轉向非洲之角。沙烏地阿拉伯、阿拉伯聯合大公國和巴林王國甚至架設了一座陸橋，將荷姆茲海峽附近港口連結以色列北部的港口城市「海法」，以緩解紅海運輸中斷的問題。隨著世界經濟復甦極慢，紅海和烏克蘭的地緣政治衝擊導致物流成本和食品價格飆升。要緩解這種問題，關鍵是要建立更多供應鏈，而中國的一帶一路計劃已經搶先佔有有利位置。
- 西方領導人將一帶一路計畫視為中國取代西方成為全球貿易網路中心的大戰略。然而，從功能角度來看，一帶一路計劃是應對物流挑戰的最佳解—盡可能建立多條運輸體系，應對不可預測的干擾，同時促進各國連通性和地緣政治影響力。
- 海上物流中斷不僅導致歐亞之間的貿易停滯不前，帶來高昂的保險費，推動貨物價格上漲。
- 雖然船隻可以選擇更安全的航線，但運送時間會變很長。更好的替代辦法是直接使用跨歐亞鐵路貨運，更可靠、更準時。
- 建立更多的道路、鐵路和港口體系，可以讓全球貨運和商品貿易可以享受更高的靈活性，同時減緩貿易保護主義、地緣政治和氣候變化的衝擊。
Summary:
The recent Houthi attack on sea freights in the Red Sea stalled maritime transport and forced operators to divert their shipping through the Horn of Africa. Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Bahrain even formed a land bridge to connect its ports near the Strait of Hormuz to Haifa in Israel to mitigate the disruptions in the Red Sea. Geopolitical shocks in the Red Sea and Ukraine spiked logistics costs and food prices as the world economy struggled to recover. The key solution to alleviate the logistics burden is to build more supply chains, and China has been in the pole position by introducing the BRI.
- Western leaders see the BRI as China's grand strategy to displace the West at the center of global trade networks. However, from a functional perspective, the BRI is the answer to meet logistical challenges: building as many transport networks as possible to hedge against unpredictable disruptions while boosting connectivity and geopolitical influence.
- Maritime logistics disruptions not only stalled trade between Europe and Asia but also incurred high insurance premiums that drove goods prices up.
- Although ships can opt for safer routes, delivering the goods may take longer. A better way is to use the Trans-Eurasian rail cargo that offers greater reliability and punctuality.
- Global freight and commodities trade can enjoy higher flexibility and mitigate shocks from protectionism, geopolitics, and climate change by creating more road, rail, and port networks.