作者/Author(s): Parag Khanna 

網站來源/Source: Foreign Policy 

日期/Date:01/20/2024 

關鍵字/Keywords: 一帶一路、供應鏈、經濟

摘要：

很難否認中國一帶一路在建設和非金融投資方面所產生的變革性力量效應。

  • 一帶一路為發展中國家提供了堅實的基礎設施建設，推動這些國家的經濟發展，並將其與全球經濟連接起來。
  • 然而，一帶一路也讓一些國家陷入負債過高或被中國控制基礎設施的風險。一些未從貿易互惠中受益的國家也正在重新考慮參與一帶一路的問題。 
  • 一些不結盟國家提出倡議，以加強其在歐非亞三洲之間的地緣戰略交匯點角色，並在地緣政治緊張升高的情況下表明其中立立場。 
  • 非洲-歐亞國家已成為全球化的中心，並希望利用其地理優勢擴大其貿易聯繫。
  • 歐盟與美國立場一致，共同對抗中國於印太地區的戰略影響，和保護歐美市場免受中國綠色能源產品傾銷。然而，歐洲也渴望增強對阿拉伯和亞洲經濟的出口。 

西方承認一帶一路的力量，但並不了解背景。 
  • 一帶一路倡議一開始是中國出口過剩製造業、實現原材料和能源多樣化的防禦性手段。 
  • 然而，解放軍的擴張、中國外交影響的增強，以及咄咄逼人的氣勢，令西方國家懷疑一帶一路是否為中國重塑世界大戰略的核心要素。 
  • 美國正在加強軍事、基礎設施和商業領域的聯盟夥伴關係，對抗中國的影響力。
  • 中國的作法，讓西方發現基礎設施在全球體系中的重要性。雖然西方在這場基礎設施競爭中是後來者，但他們致力於創造公平競爭的環境，有所斬獲。 
  • 西方可能將基礎設施競爭視為零和遊戲，但它將連接世界，提供替代的供應鏈途徑，讓全球供應鏈更能抵禦地緣政治衝擊和氣候壓力。 
 
Summary: 
It is difficult to refute the transformative power effect of the Chinese BRI in construction and non-financial investments. 
  • The BRI provided solid infrastructure development to developing countries, bolstering their economies and connecting them to the global economy.
  • However, BRI also exposed some countries to excessive debt or infrastructure capture by China. Some countries that did not benefit from sufficient trade reciprocity are reconsidering their involvement in the BRI. 
  • Some non-aligned countries propose initiatives to boost their role as a geopolitical crossroad between Europe, Africa, and Asia and signal their neutrality amid the heightened geopolitical tension. 
  • The Afro-Eurasia countries have become the center of globalization and hope to use their geographical advantage to expand their trade connections. 
  • The EU aligns with the US on countering Chinese strategic influence in the Indo-Pacific region and protecting their market from Chinese dumping of green energy products. However, it is keen to bolster its exports to Arab and Asian economies. 
The West acknowledges the power of BRI but does not comprehend its underlying context. 
  • The BRI starts as a defensive instrument for China to export its manufacturing surplus and diversify its raw material and energy sources. 
  • Yet, the expansion of the PLA and Chinese diplomatic influence, accompanied by increased aggressiveness, caused suspicion among Western countries that the BRI is a core element of China's grand strategy to remake the world.  
  • The US is countering China's influence by reinforcing alliances and partnerships in military, infrastructure, and commercial domains. 
  • China remained the West on the importance of infrastructure on the global agenda. Although the West is a latecomer in this infrastructural competition, it has had some successes in leveling the playing field. 
  • The West may frame the competition in infrastructure as zero-sum. Still, it will connect the world, provide alternative supply chain pathways, and make the global supply chain more resilient to geopolitical shocks and climate stress.
 
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