網站來源/Source: The Economist 

日期/Date: 11/06/2023 

關鍵字/Keywords: 後勤 

摘要：

1949年，解放軍追著國民黨軍隊一路到金門，但由於強大的防禦和缺乏供應品，中國軍隊遭遇了失敗，這件事至今仍然困擾著解放軍。但這在中國要台灣入侵的情況下非常重要，因為中國需要進行兩棲作戰。 

  • 如果中國政府決定入侵台灣，解放軍需要運送大量的部隊、裝備和補給品。 
  • 解放軍非常重視後勤工作，認為需要擁有更大量的軍事物資。中國軍事專家在俄烏危機中學到重要的一課，就是發現物資和彈藥較少的一方，在消耗戰中有很大機會落敗。此外，快速的戰爭節奏和戰區擴大，導致向前線運送物資變得更加複雜。對中國來說，與台灣之間的衝突涉及海上作戰，這將會更具挑戰性。
  • 自2016年以來，習近平通過反腐敗、重新劃分戰區指揮、成立由中央軍委直接領導的聯合後勤保障部隊（JLSF）、將數位技術融入物流管理，以及與民間物流行業合作等方式，改造和升級了解放軍的後勤支援。
  • 美國和台灣的研究人員發現了解放軍後勤支援的幾個弱點，包括缺乏重型裝備運輸工具、過度依賴易受攻擊的道路和鐵路，以及被分配到戰鬥部隊的後勤人員人數很少。
  • 解放軍在面對台灣沿海地區是否擁有足夠的儲存空間或物流基礎設施，目前尚不得而知。 
  • 解放軍空軍沒有足夠的維修能力、備用零件或飛行員，導致解放軍難以維持長時間的空中作戰。 
  • 不少解放軍軍官承認，多功能性是解放軍面臨的最大挑戰，因為他們可能還需要穩定中印邊界，甚至支援中國境外的其他行動。
  • 雖然解放軍是地區性軍事強國，但他們對於在台海衝突中取得勝利的能力並不自信。 
 
Summary: 
In 1949, the PLA chased the Nationalist forces to Kinmen, but the Chinese forces met their demise after strong defenses and the lack of supplies impeded their combat ability. This event still haunts the PLA as logistics is crucial in any war, and in the case of the Taiwan invasion, it is daunting because it involves an amphibious operation.  
 
  • The PLA would need to transport a staggering amount of troops, equipment, and supplies if the Chinese government decides to invade Taiwan.  
  • The PLA paid close attention to logistics, calling for a larger inventory of military supplies. Through the Russo-Ukraine War, Chinese military experts found that the side that depleted its supplies and munitions would lose in a war of attrition. Further, the rapid pace of warfighting and expansion of combat zones complicate the delivery of supplies to the frontline. It would be more challenging for China as it involves a sea-crossing operation. 
  • Xi has revamped and upgraded the PLA's logistics since 2016 by eliminating corruption, redrawing theater commands, establishing a Joint Logistics Support Force (JLSF) under the direct supervision of the Central Military Commission, incorporating digital technologies in logistics management, and cooperating with civilian logistics industries.  
  • US and Taiwanese researchers found several weaknesses in the PLA logistics, including a lack of heavy-equipment transporters, over-reliance on vulnerable roads and railways, and a small number of logistics personnel assigned to combat units. 
  • Whether the PLA has enough storage or logistic infrastructure in coastal areas facing Taiwan is unknown. 
  • The PLA Air Force does not have sufficient maintenance capacity, spare parts, or pilots, making it hard for the PLA to sustain long air operations. 
  • Some PLA officers admit that versatility is their biggest challenge because they may also need to stabilize the Chinese-Indian borders and sustain other operations far beyond the Chinese borders. 
  • Although the PLA is a regional military power, it is not confident in its ability to prevail in a war over Taiwan. 
回上層