作者/Author(s): George J. Gilboy and Eric Heginbotham 

網站來源/Source: Lawfare 

日期/Date: 12/17/023 

關鍵字/Keywords: 經濟、制裁 

摘要：

麻省理工學院安全研究項目針對美中在台灣問題上的衝突進行了一次政經危機兵棋推演，強調了危機對經濟的影響。模擬結果顯示，將防禦措施誤認為進攻措施，或者重懲罰輕誘導，會導致美中台針鋒相對的反應，衝突升級。以下模擬後的重要啟示：

衝突迅速升級 

  • 美國可能率先對中國高科技和金融行業實施制裁，而中國則通過限制工業原材料的出口和出售其美國金融資產來進行報復。互相報復的行為終將擴散至其他行業，導致衝突升級。 
  • 當中國捉襟見肘時，他會試圖透過貿易激勵措施來拉攏歐洲，但同時又發出支持俄羅斯在烏克蘭發動戰爭的信號，以示警告。對歐洲來說，威脅比胡蘿蔔更有效，因此反倒增加了歐洲對台灣的支持。 
  • 中國、美國及其盟友可能採取更冒險的措施，導致中國貿易夥伴出現重大經濟損失，甚至為運往台灣的貨物提供軍事護衛。 
沒有贏家，但中國是最大的輸家。 
  • 全球經濟都會受到影響，但中國大陸和台灣的損失最為慘重。
  • 中國缺乏在不損害自身經濟的情況下向美國升級施壓的手段，但美國可以透過利用新手段和尋求合作夥伴的幫助來擴大制裁的效果。
  • 中國領導人會擔心經濟損失將引發全國性的社會和政治動蕩。 
 
為經濟戰略做準備 
  • 人們對於中國經濟脅迫台灣的後果並不清楚。因此，必須進行更多研究，了解潛在的成本和衝突途徑。
  • 美國及其盟國必須提高經濟應變能力和戰時協調能力，以確保減少供應鏈的中斷。 
  • 美國及其盟國政府必須加強與私營部門的協調，多樣化其供應鏈，降低所面臨的風險。 
  • 美國也必須提供中國終止衝突的經濟激勵，而不僅僅專注於懲罰。
  • 如果中國對台灣實施經濟脅迫與嚇阻來穩定台海局勢，美國及其盟國應宣傳並警告中國可能遭受的貿易和金融制裁。

Summary: 
The MIT Security Studies Program conducted a political-economic crisis simulation of the U.S.-China conflict over Taiwan that emphasized the economic aspects of the crisis. The exercise shows that misperception of defensive measures as offensive and emphasis on punishment over inducement leads to tit-for-tat responses that cause conflict escalation. The following are the key takeaways:

Conflict escalation happens rapidly. 
  • The U.S. will likely start with sanctions on Chinese high-technology and financial sectors, while China retaliates by restricting the export of industrial commodities and selling its U.S. financial assets. The tit-for-tat will spread across other industries and intensify, thus escalating the conflict. 
  • When China overstretched, it will try to induce Europe with trade incentives, but at the same time, signaling its support for Russia's war in Ukraine as a warning. Europe views the threat as more consequential than the carrot, thus increasing its support for Taiwan. 
  • China, the U.S., and its allies may pursue riskier measures that entail significant economic loss to Chinese trade partners or even military escort for shipments to Taiwan. 
There are no winners, but China is the biggest loser. 
  • The global economy will suffer, but China and Taiwan will incur the heaviest losses. 
  • China will lack the means to escalate pressure on the U.S. without hurting its economy, but the U.S. can extend the effects of sanctions by leveraging new means and enlisting the help of its partners. 
  • Chinese leaders would be worried that economic losses would spark nationwide social and political instability. 
Preparing for an economic war. 
  • The consequences of Chinese economic coercion against Taiwan are relatively underexplored. Thus, more studies on the potential costs and courses on conflict must be done. 
  • The U.S. and its allies must improve their economic resilience and wartime coordination to ensure less interruption in the supply chain. 
  • The governments of the U.S. and its allies must improve coordination with the private sector to diversify their supply chain and reduce the risks they will face.
  • The U.S. must also plan for economic incentives for China for conflict termination and not focus entirely on punishment. 
  • The U.S. and its allies should publicize and warn China of the potential trade and financial sanctions if it implements economic coercion against Taiwan as deterrence and stabilizes the Taiwan Strait. 
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