和解之路?從奧斯汀、布林肯與蘇利文言論中一窺拜登政府外交政策架構
Path of Reconciliation? Hints of Biden’s Foreign Policy from Austin, Blinken, and Sullivan
Xian Bing Kelvin Hah
Ph.D. Student, Graduate Institute of International Affairs and Strategic Studies, Tamkang University
淡江大學國際事務與戰略研究所博士生
June 2023
Ph.D. Student, Graduate Institute of International Affairs and Strategic Studies, Tamkang University
淡江大學國際事務與戰略研究所博士生
June 2023
2023年6月2日，美國國防部長奧斯汀、國務卿布林肯以及國家安全顧問蘇利文分別在三個不同的場合發表演講。雖然三個演講內容各自針對不同聽眾，但其所要傳達的訊息是一致的：他們將透過重振美國聯盟關係，和對手國家和解等方式來恢復國際秩序。奧斯汀、布林肯還有蘇利文三位一致指責俄羅斯顛覆了二戰以來的國際秩序，而美國正試圖恢復這一秩序。除此之外，奧斯汀和布林肯強調只有重視美國與歐洲和印太地區盟友合作之重要性，才能有效遏止俄羅斯贏得戰爭和其侵略行動。他們三個也強調了與俄羅斯和中國合作的重要性，恢復以規則為基礎的國際秩序，促進全球和平及穩定，並防止未來衝突的發生。雖然奧斯汀、布林肯還有蘇利文都嚴厲地批評俄羅斯和中國，但同時他們也認為，維持穩定是全球共同的利益，莫斯科和北京最後還是會與美國談判。以上這些演講內容強調了拜登政府的重要戰略展望，但在實現拜登的戰略目標方面可能是矛盾，甚至無效的。
本評論將分成幾個部分：首先，我將指出這些演講的重點。再來，我將評論這些演講內容的相似之處，尤其是美國與盟友和其競爭對手之間來往的意願。最後，我將以這些演講內容作為基礎，簡要分析拜登未來外交政策的前景與挑戰。
本評論將分成幾個部分：首先，我將指出這些演講的重點。再來，我將評論這些演講內容的相似之處，尤其是美國與盟友和其競爭對手之間來往的意願。最後，我將以這些演講內容作為基礎，簡要分析拜登未來外交政策的前景與挑戰。
1.重點摘要
美國國防部長奧斯汀（Lloyd Austin）在新加坡香格里拉對話以「印太共同願景」為主題發表演講，他首先肯定印太國家在實現自由和開放印太地區的共同願景方面取得之進展，並強調了共同願景對地區和平與繁榮的重要性。接著，奧斯汀指出印太國家承擔了維護區域安全、應對全球挑戰及透過對話解決分歧的責任；強調了美國在加強印太地區的軍事聯盟和夥伴關係方面所做出的努力，幫助遏制侵略、改善區域安全環境和加強國際規範。同時，奧斯汀堅持，美國承諾支持其盟友維護其權利和主權，捍衛抵抗脅迫的決心，並維護台灣海峽現狀。他也重申，美國並不尋求與中國進行冷戰，也不希望與中國的戰略競爭最終演變成全面衝突。奧斯汀希望能夠穩固美中之間防止衝突的護欄，加強與中國軍事領導人的溝通，以避免誤解和誤判。最後，奧斯汀強調，美國致力於確保印太地區的和平與繁榮，堅持自由、開放和安全的印度-太平洋。
國務卿布林肯（Antony Blinken）則是在芬蘭赫爾辛基市政府發表主題為「俄羅斯的戰略失敗與烏克蘭安全未來」之演講。在演講中，他先歡迎芬蘭加入北約，並比較了2022年俄羅斯入侵烏克蘭與1939年蘇聯入侵芬蘭之間的相似之處。2021年，美國試圖通過外交途徑阻止俄羅斯入侵烏克蘭並解決共同安全問題，但俄羅斯選擇了侵略的道路。美國只能協助烏克蘭，制裁俄羅斯，與志同道合的盟友加強北約，使烏克蘭能夠抵抗俄羅斯的入侵。布林肯認為，普丁入侵烏克蘭是一個嚴重的戰略錯誤，削弱了俄羅斯的國家實力、利益和全球影響力。這次入侵還讓北約和理念相近國聯合支援烏克蘭的國防，幫助烏克蘭重建，並加強其抵抗未來入侵的能力。然而，布林肯也強調，美國和北約都不是俄羅斯的敵人，大家都希望通過外交途徑解決衝突。除此之外，布林肯還強調了《聯合國憲章》在確保長久和平、主權、領土完整和獨立方面的重要性。最後，布林肯承認，俄烏停火命令可能很快就會到來，但他堅持認為，任何和平協議都必須符合《聯合國憲章》，包括將奪取的土地歸還給烏克蘭人，並確保永久和平。
而美國國家安全顧問蘇利文則是在華府非營利組織「武器管制協會」年度論壇上發表演講。他首先認可「武器管制協會」在限制核武器擴散方面的重要性，但俄羅斯對烏克蘭的入侵破壞了核秩序穩定。利文還批評中國作為一個核大國，卻缺乏合作，也不願意對話。除此之外，北韓和伊朗也表現出核挑釁。蘇利文認為俄羅斯、中國、北韓和伊朗破壞了後冷戰時期的核秩序。因此，美國需要新的策略來維持軍備控制目標。首先，美國將現代化其核計畫，以及擴大與盟國的核保護傘，來提高其核威懾能力。接著，美國將提出包括俄羅斯和中國在內的新武器控制和風險縮小提案。最後，蘇利文強調了美國的全球領導地位，和管控戰略競爭對避免核風險的重要性。
國務卿布林肯（Antony Blinken）則是在芬蘭赫爾辛基市政府發表主題為「俄羅斯的戰略失敗與烏克蘭安全未來」之演講。在演講中，他先歡迎芬蘭加入北約，並比較了2022年俄羅斯入侵烏克蘭與1939年蘇聯入侵芬蘭之間的相似之處。2021年，美國試圖通過外交途徑阻止俄羅斯入侵烏克蘭並解決共同安全問題，但俄羅斯選擇了侵略的道路。美國只能協助烏克蘭，制裁俄羅斯，與志同道合的盟友加強北約，使烏克蘭能夠抵抗俄羅斯的入侵。布林肯認為，普丁入侵烏克蘭是一個嚴重的戰略錯誤，削弱了俄羅斯的國家實力、利益和全球影響力。這次入侵還讓北約和理念相近國聯合支援烏克蘭的國防，幫助烏克蘭重建，並加強其抵抗未來入侵的能力。然而，布林肯也強調，美國和北約都不是俄羅斯的敵人，大家都希望通過外交途徑解決衝突。除此之外，布林肯還強調了《聯合國憲章》在確保長久和平、主權、領土完整和獨立方面的重要性。最後，布林肯承認，俄烏停火命令可能很快就會到來，但他堅持認為，任何和平協議都必須符合《聯合國憲章》，包括將奪取的土地歸還給烏克蘭人，並確保永久和平。
而美國國家安全顧問蘇利文則是在華府非營利組織「武器管制協會」年度論壇上發表演講。他首先認可「武器管制協會」在限制核武器擴散方面的重要性，但俄羅斯對烏克蘭的入侵破壞了核秩序穩定。利文還批評中國作為一個核大國，卻缺乏合作，也不願意對話。除此之外，北韓和伊朗也表現出核挑釁。蘇利文認為俄羅斯、中國、北韓和伊朗破壞了後冷戰時期的核秩序。因此，美國需要新的策略來維持軍備控制目標。首先，美國將現代化其核計畫，以及擴大與盟國的核保護傘，來提高其核威懾能力。接著，美國將提出包括俄羅斯和中國在內的新武器控制和風險縮小提案。最後，蘇利文強調了美國的全球領導地位，和管控戰略競爭對避免核風險的重要性。
2. 透過聯盟和對話恢復國際秩序
雖然三次演講的主題和聽眾不同，但都傳遞了相同的訊息：恢復基於規則的國際秩序。奧斯汀和布林肯強調了國際秩序中主權、領土完整和獨立的關鍵原則。當俄羅斯不顧美國和北約的安全保證和警告入侵烏克蘭時，這些原則就已經被推翻了。隨之而來的流血事件讓各國迅速團結起來，以美國為首，堅定地承諾支持烏克蘭國防，直到俄羅斯完全撤出烏克蘭，並將占領的領土歸還烏克蘭為止。這凸顯了聯盟致力於將國際秩序恢復到戰前狀態。
奧斯汀和蘇利文強調了遵守國際法對維護地區和全球穩定的重要性。奧斯汀批評中國在國際海域和空域上的挑釁行為，並堅持所有國家應遵循具有法律約束力的2016年南海仲裁裁決。而蘇利文的演講則是最具影響力的，他批評俄羅斯中止《新削減戰略武器條約》和退出《歐洲常規武裝力量條約》等行為破壞核秩序。普丁甚至加強了俄羅斯的核能力，毀壞了核武器控制框架架構。蘇利文還譴責中國在承平時期擁有至少1500枚核彈頭，卻不願加入全球核控制架構。簡而言之，美國指責俄羅斯和中國藐視國際法，擾亂國際穩定。
為了恢復基於規則的國際秩序，維護國際法的完整性，他們建議加強聯盟，通過建設性的對話解決與美國對手，特別是俄羅斯和中國的分歧。美國透過以下政策來加強聯盟和夥伴關係：
a) 加強美國軍事力量、通訊基礎設施和核能力並使之現代化，以提高威懾力和前線部隊戰力。奧斯汀提到，美國額外投資610億美元，採購現代戰鬥機、船艦、無人載具平臺、高超音速彈道飛彈和網路能力。奧斯汀還承諾他們將於2025年在日本部署「陸戰隊濱海作戰團」，該作戰團將從原本的美國海軍陸戰隊第12軍團進行改組與整編，形成新型作戰力量。蘇利文表示，美國正在推動核武器計劃現代化，透過更換其搭載核武器的平台等方式，獲得下一代核通訊、控制和基礎設施，並發展尖端的非核能力。
b) 擴大與盟友在軍事技術研究和開發方面的合作。美國正在與印度和日本共同開發關鍵的防禦系統，並通過AUKUS與英國和澳洲共同開發核動力潛艇。美國致力於與其夥伴推動北約的核威懾能力更現代化。
c) 加強盟友的威懾能力和軍事互通性。美國、日本和韓國正在改善互通性，以更好地分享有關來自北韓的飛彈威脅資訊。同時，因為美國並不鼓勵其印太盟友發展核武器，所以期也將核保護傘承諾擴大到夥伴盟友國身上。
d) 擴大與區域盟友和多邊組織的軍事交流。美國通過東協國防部長會議加強與東盟的交往，並承諾與其太平洋島嶼夥伴一起提高海洋領域意識。蘇利文提到，美國也在軍備控制相關議題論壇中，領導討論並產生結果。
美國終於認知到，他們必須解決與俄羅斯和中國的分歧，並負責任地管理他們的戰略競爭。目前最優先的是要結束俄烏戰爭。美國未能透過外交手段阻止俄羅斯的暴行，導致數千人喪生，數百萬人流離失所，並破壞了全球糧食和能源供應。然而，基於目前的戰爭狀態，布林肯樂觀地認為，俄羅斯最終會放下武器，選擇外交途徑。而美國將促進和平談判，也樂見其他國家嘗試調解，通過聯合國憲章的原則解決衝突。
奧斯汀希望透過外交手段加強印太地區的和平、安全和穩定。他強調美國有必要與中國高層建立開放的溝通管道，而不僅僅是象徵性的握手，才能避免誤解和誤判。此外，奧斯汀將中國視為一個大國。因此，他希望中國在處理美中關係時能夠更加透明和負責任，而不是不願意接觸。這表明美國熱切期望修復與中國的關係，以防止印太地區的大國衝突，但這還是要看中國是否接過橄欖枝。
蘇利文希望在新的核時代加強核軍備控制，減少核風險。首先，美國將與俄羅斯和中國簽訂雙邊軍備控制協議，但他們必須願意為此負責任。此外，美國將遵守軍備控制協議，但如果其他方違反了這些協議，美國將採取相應報復。隨著《新削減戰略武器條約》於2026年到期，美國希望延長與俄羅斯的控制架構至2026以後，並與中國討論核武控制措施，以管理戰略競爭、避免衝突，提高全球安全。除此之外，美國也希望五常（擁有核計劃的大國）成員，特別是俄羅斯和中國，能夠通過對話、透明和協議，更負責地管理核風險和軍備競賽。
3.拜登外交政策的前景與挑戰
在川普政府執政期間，美國幾乎完全放棄了其全球領導地位，這不僅激怒了許多美國盟友，也導致國際秩序陷入混亂。拜登上任後，他的政府恢復其夥伴的信任，但卻受到國內政治和COVID-19的阻撓。然而，普丁入侵烏克蘭一舉，使美國有機會展示其全球領導力，和美國作為保護基於規則的國際秩序中不可或缺的角色。雖然拜登政府未能阻止俄羅斯的入侵，但他們展現出美國對烏克蘭防禦的承諾。美國還爭取到了國際社會對烏克蘭的支持，大大打亂了普丁的戰爭計劃，使烏克蘭人能夠解放原本被占領的地區。美國只希望和平結束俄烏衝突，幫助烏克蘭重建，防止歐洲地區盟友未來被侵略。
拜登政府原本希望在2022年底能夠通過建設性對話，放鬆緊張的中美關係，但這種想法卻因中國間諜氣球侵犯美國領空事件而受阻。中國拒絕與美國進行任何高層溝通，並指責美國打壓他們的崛起。奧斯汀和蘇利文都強調了華盛頓希望能與中國和平相處，彌補分歧，但雙方是否能夠恢復高層外交會談，還要看北京政府的決定。布魯金斯學會的何瑞恩（Ryan Hass）建議美國優先考慮進行直接的二軌對話，暫停危機管理談判和美中之間的行動規範，同時協助習近平實現良善面向的全球野心。由於拜登對中國的戰略缺乏一致性，常常相互矛盾，中國似乎對美國提出高層對話的請求不感興趣。此外，除非美國明確了解習近平的戰略野心和國家利益，否則中國不願意與拜登的官員接觸。不過，好的一面是，華盛頓和北京之間至少已經有了中等程度的交流。
然而，拜登的一些戰略與目標相矛盾，可能會導致緊張局勢進一步升級。首先，美國確立了美軍進行軍事現代化和增加武力態勢的必要性，以應對當前的挑戰，遏制侵略，並維護全球穩定。然而，美國這樣做會加劇中國的安全困境，並導致印太地區的海空領域可能發生衝突升級。美國的核軍備控制戰略也是一樣問題。Michael Hirsh最近在《外交政策》中評論說：「蘇利文此舉幾乎沒有減輕核危機的恐懼，他甚至是打算通過核競賽來防止另一場軍備競賽。」美國公開宣布期將加強與印太盟友的軍事聯繫，可能被解讀為針對中國的連鎖反應行為。雖然加強與盟友的軍事接觸可以提升美國盟友的安全，但中國可能會將美國的行動解讀為圍堵與遏止中國。最後，美國要求所有國家遵循國際法，如聯合國海洋法公約，但美國自己卻並未批准或遵循這些協議。在沒有法律依據的情況下，美國無法說服其對手按照自己說的做。美國相互矛盾的政策會讓人感到困惑，甚至可能產生反效果。因此，美國必須針對自己擔憂的問題作出回應，並在一些限制與規範上劃清界線。
總之，這三次演說表明美國意在恢復基於規則的國際秩序，並維護國際穩定。美國希望透過加強聯盟和與其競爭對手，特別是俄羅斯和中國和解，來實現這些目標。目前，美國的優先任務是把俄羅斯帶到談判桌上，並歡迎其他國家堂是進行調解，共同和平解決烏克蘭危機。美國承諾自己和其盟友將支持烏克蘭目前的戰爭和戰後的重建工作。此外，美國還希望與其歐洲和印太地區的盟友和夥伴共同促進地區穩定。雖然美國尋求與對手和解，但其政策是相互矛盾的，很容易會被誤解。目前，許多國家是相對歡迎美國恢復領導地位，並需要美國的影響力來鞭策俄羅斯和中國，但美國必須有明確和一致的政策來實現其戰略目標。
On June 2, 2023, Lloyd Austin, the US Secretary of Defense, Antony Blinken, the US Secretary of State, and Jake Sullivan, the US National Security Advisor, gave speeches on three separate occasions. Although the addresses were directed at different audiences, they carried similar messages: restore the international order by revitalizing US alliances and reconciling with its rivals. Austin, Blinken, and Sullivan blamed Russia for upending the post-Cold War international order and sought to restore it. Further, Austin and Blinken emphasized the importance of US alliances and partnerships, especially with European and Indo-Pacific countries, in denying Russia a victory in the ongoing Russo-Ukrainian War and deterring future aggressions. Austin, Blinken, and Sullivan also stressed the importance of cooperating with Russia and China to restore rule-based international order for global peace, preserve global stability, and prevent future conflicts. Despite heavy criticisms of Russia and China, Austin, Blinken, and Sullivan are optimistic that Moscow and Beijing will eventually talk to the US, as maintaining global stability is a shared interest. While the speeches underlined the key strategic outlook of Biden’s administration, the policies may be contradictory or ineffective in achieving Biden’s strategic aims.
This commentary will proceed as follow: First, I will note the key points of the speeches. Second, I will comment on the similarities of these speeches, specifically on alliances and the US’s willingness to engage with its rivals. Third, based on these speeches, I will briefly analyze the prospects and challenges of Biden’s future foreign policies.
1.Key Takeaways
The US Secretary of Defense, Lloyd Austin, gave remarks on “A Shared Vision for the Indo-Pacific” at the Shangri-La Dialogue in Singapore. Austin praised Indo-Pacific countries for progressing towards the shared vision of a free and open Indo-Pacific and emphasized the importance of the vision for regional peace and prosperity. Next, Austin pointed out how Indo-Pacific countries took responsibility for maintaining regional security, addressing global challenges, and mending differences through dialogues. Austin highlighted the efforts the US made in reinforcing military alliances and partnerships in the Indo-Pacific region to deter aggression, improve regional security, and enhance international norms. Austin asserted the US commitment to support its allies in upholding their rights and sovereignty, defending against coercion, and preserving the status quo in the Taiwan Strait. Austin reiterated that the US did not seek a Cold War with China nor wanted strategic competition with China to evolve into an all-out conflict. Austin hopes to bolster the guardrails against conflicts and increase communications with Chinese military leaders to avoid misunderstanding and miscalculations. Finally, Austin underscored the US commitment to ensure peace and prosperity in the Indo-Pacific Region and uphold the principles of free, open, and secure Indo-Pacific.
Antony Blinken, the US Secretary of State, gave a speech titled “Russia’s Strategic Failure and Ukraine’s Secure Future” in Helsinki, Finland. Blinken started by hailing Finland’s ascension into NATO and compared the similarities between the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022 with the Soviet Union’s invasion of Finland in 1939. In 2021, The US tried to stop Russia from invading Ukraine through diplomatic channels and address mutual security concerns, but Russia chose the path of aggression. The US has no choice but to assist Ukraine, sanction Russia, and strengthen NATO with like-minded allies, enabling Ukraine to hold up against Russia until now. According to Blinken, Putin made a severe strategic blunder by invading Ukraine, which diminished Russia’s national power, interest, and global influence. The invasion also united NATO and like-minded countries to support the Ukrainian defense, help Ukraine to rebuild, and fortify Ukraine against future aggression. Yet, Blinken stressed that neither the US nor NATO are the enemies of Russia and wished to resolve the conflict through diplomacy. Blinken also emphasized the importance of the United Nations Charter in ensuring lasting peace, sovereignty, territorial integrity, and independence. Finally, Blinken admitted that a Russia-Ukraine ceasefire might come soon but insisted that any peace agreements must be in accordance with the UN Charter, include the return of seized land to the Ukrainians, and ensure everlasting peace.
In the Arms Control Association (ACA) Annual Forum, the US National Security Advisor, Jake Sullivan, gave some remarks. Sullivan started by acknowledging the importance of the ACA in limiting nuclear weapons proliferation, but the Russian invasion of Ukraine destabilized the nuclear order. Sullivan also criticized China for its lack of cooperation and reluctance to dialogue despite being a nuclear power. Further, DPRK and Iran also showed nuclear belligerence. Sullivan believes Russia, China, DPRK, and Iran undermined the post-Cold War nuclear order. Thus, the US needs new strategies to maintain the goals of arms control. First, the US would improve its nuclear deterrence capabilities by modernizing its nuclear program and expanding its nuclear umbrella with its allies. Second, the US would introduce new arms control and risk reduction proposals that include Russia and China. Finally, Sullivan emphasized the importance of US global leadership and controlled strategic competition to avert nuclear risks.
2.Restoring the International Order through Alliances and Dialogues
Although the themes and audiences of the three speeches were different, they carried the same message: restore the rule-based international order. Austin and Blinken underlined the key principles of sovereignty, territorial integrity, and independence within the international order. These principles were overturned when Russia invaded Ukraine despite security assurances and warnings from the US and NATO. The ensuing bloodbath unites the US-led alliances to support Ukraine’s defense with an unwavering pledge until Russia withdraws completely from Ukraine and returns occupied territory to Ukraine. It shows the alliance’s commitment to restoring the international order to its pre-war condition.
Austin and Sullivan emphasized the importance of adhering to international law in maintaining regional and global stability. Austin took a swipe at China for their aggressive behavior in international sea and airspace and insisted all actors follow the legally binding 2016 South China Sea Arbitration. Sullivan’s speech is most significant in this aspect. He criticized Russia for toppling the nuclear order by suspending the New START Treaty and withdrawing from the Treaty on Conventional Forces. Putin even enhanced Russia’s nuclear capabilities, which upset the nuclear arms control framework. Sullivan also chastised China for its reluctance to join global nuclear control frameworks despite amassing at least 1500 nuclear warheads during peacetime. In short, the US blamed Russia and China for flouting international law and disturbing international stability.
To restore the rule-based international order and preserve the integrity of international law, they proposed strengthening alliances and resolving differences with US rivals, especially Russia and China, through constructive dialogues. The US implements the following policies to reinforce alliances and partnerships:
雖然三次演講的主題和聽眾不同，但都傳遞了相同的訊息：恢復基於規則的國際秩序。奧斯汀和布林肯強調了國際秩序中主權、領土完整和獨立的關鍵原則。當俄羅斯不顧美國和北約的安全保證和警告入侵烏克蘭時，這些原則就已經被推翻了。隨之而來的流血事件讓各國迅速團結起來，以美國為首，堅定地承諾支持烏克蘭國防，直到俄羅斯完全撤出烏克蘭，並將占領的領土歸還烏克蘭為止。這凸顯了聯盟致力於將國際秩序恢復到戰前狀態。
奧斯汀和蘇利文強調了遵守國際法對維護地區和全球穩定的重要性。奧斯汀批評中國在國際海域和空域上的挑釁行為，並堅持所有國家應遵循具有法律約束力的2016年南海仲裁裁決。而蘇利文的演講則是最具影響力的，他批評俄羅斯中止《新削減戰略武器條約》和退出《歐洲常規武裝力量條約》等行為破壞核秩序。普丁甚至加強了俄羅斯的核能力，毀壞了核武器控制框架架構。蘇利文還譴責中國在承平時期擁有至少1500枚核彈頭，卻不願加入全球核控制架構。簡而言之，美國指責俄羅斯和中國藐視國際法，擾亂國際穩定。
為了恢復基於規則的國際秩序，維護國際法的完整性，他們建議加強聯盟，通過建設性的對話解決與美國對手，特別是俄羅斯和中國的分歧。美國透過以下政策來加強聯盟和夥伴關係：
a) 加強美國軍事力量、通訊基礎設施和核能力並使之現代化，以提高威懾力和前線部隊戰力。奧斯汀提到，美國額外投資610億美元，採購現代戰鬥機、船艦、無人載具平臺、高超音速彈道飛彈和網路能力。奧斯汀還承諾他們將於2025年在日本部署「陸戰隊濱海作戰團」，該作戰團將從原本的美國海軍陸戰隊第12軍團進行改組與整編，形成新型作戰力量。蘇利文表示，美國正在推動核武器計劃現代化，透過更換其搭載核武器的平台等方式，獲得下一代核通訊、控制和基礎設施，並發展尖端的非核能力。
b) 擴大與盟友在軍事技術研究和開發方面的合作。美國正在與印度和日本共同開發關鍵的防禦系統，並通過AUKUS與英國和澳洲共同開發核動力潛艇。美國致力於與其夥伴推動北約的核威懾能力更現代化。
c) 加強盟友的威懾能力和軍事互通性。美國、日本和韓國正在改善互通性，以更好地分享有關來自北韓的飛彈威脅資訊。同時，因為美國並不鼓勵其印太盟友發展核武器，所以期也將核保護傘承諾擴大到夥伴盟友國身上。
d) 擴大與區域盟友和多邊組織的軍事交流。美國通過東協國防部長會議加強與東盟的交往，並承諾與其太平洋島嶼夥伴一起提高海洋領域意識。蘇利文提到，美國也在軍備控制相關議題論壇中，領導討論並產生結果。
美國終於認知到，他們必須解決與俄羅斯和中國的分歧，並負責任地管理他們的戰略競爭。目前最優先的是要結束俄烏戰爭。美國未能透過外交手段阻止俄羅斯的暴行，導致數千人喪生，數百萬人流離失所，並破壞了全球糧食和能源供應。然而，基於目前的戰爭狀態，布林肯樂觀地認為，俄羅斯最終會放下武器，選擇外交途徑。而美國將促進和平談判，也樂見其他國家嘗試調解，通過聯合國憲章的原則解決衝突。
奧斯汀希望透過外交手段加強印太地區的和平、安全和穩定。他強調美國有必要與中國高層建立開放的溝通管道，而不僅僅是象徵性的握手，才能避免誤解和誤判。此外，奧斯汀將中國視為一個大國。因此，他希望中國在處理美中關係時能夠更加透明和負責任，而不是不願意接觸。這表明美國熱切期望修復與中國的關係，以防止印太地區的大國衝突，但這還是要看中國是否接過橄欖枝。
蘇利文希望在新的核時代加強核軍備控制，減少核風險。首先，美國將與俄羅斯和中國簽訂雙邊軍備控制協議，但他們必須願意為此負責任。此外，美國將遵守軍備控制協議，但如果其他方違反了這些協議，美國將採取相應報復。隨著《新削減戰略武器條約》於2026年到期，美國希望延長與俄羅斯的控制架構至2026以後，並與中國討論核武控制措施，以管理戰略競爭、避免衝突，提高全球安全。除此之外，美國也希望五常（擁有核計劃的大國）成員，特別是俄羅斯和中國，能夠通過對話、透明和協議，更負責地管理核風險和軍備競賽。
3.拜登外交政策的前景與挑戰
在川普政府執政期間，美國幾乎完全放棄了其全球領導地位，這不僅激怒了許多美國盟友，也導致國際秩序陷入混亂。拜登上任後，他的政府恢復其夥伴的信任，但卻受到國內政治和COVID-19的阻撓。然而，普丁入侵烏克蘭一舉，使美國有機會展示其全球領導力，和美國作為保護基於規則的國際秩序中不可或缺的角色。雖然拜登政府未能阻止俄羅斯的入侵，但他們展現出美國對烏克蘭防禦的承諾。美國還爭取到了國際社會對烏克蘭的支持，大大打亂了普丁的戰爭計劃，使烏克蘭人能夠解放原本被占領的地區。美國只希望和平結束俄烏衝突，幫助烏克蘭重建，防止歐洲地區盟友未來被侵略。
拜登政府原本希望在2022年底能夠通過建設性對話，放鬆緊張的中美關係，但這種想法卻因中國間諜氣球侵犯美國領空事件而受阻。中國拒絕與美國進行任何高層溝通，並指責美國打壓他們的崛起。奧斯汀和蘇利文都強調了華盛頓希望能與中國和平相處，彌補分歧，但雙方是否能夠恢復高層外交會談，還要看北京政府的決定。布魯金斯學會的何瑞恩（Ryan Hass）建議美國優先考慮進行直接的二軌對話，暫停危機管理談判和美中之間的行動規範，同時協助習近平實現良善面向的全球野心。由於拜登對中國的戰略缺乏一致性，常常相互矛盾，中國似乎對美國提出高層對話的請求不感興趣。此外，除非美國明確了解習近平的戰略野心和國家利益，否則中國不願意與拜登的官員接觸。不過，好的一面是，華盛頓和北京之間至少已經有了中等程度的交流。
然而，拜登的一些戰略與目標相矛盾，可能會導致緊張局勢進一步升級。首先，美國確立了美軍進行軍事現代化和增加武力態勢的必要性，以應對當前的挑戰，遏制侵略，並維護全球穩定。然而，美國這樣做會加劇中國的安全困境，並導致印太地區的海空領域可能發生衝突升級。美國的核軍備控制戰略也是一樣問題。Michael Hirsh最近在《外交政策》中評論說：「蘇利文此舉幾乎沒有減輕核危機的恐懼，他甚至是打算通過核競賽來防止另一場軍備競賽。」美國公開宣布期將加強與印太盟友的軍事聯繫，可能被解讀為針對中國的連鎖反應行為。雖然加強與盟友的軍事接觸可以提升美國盟友的安全，但中國可能會將美國的行動解讀為圍堵與遏止中國。最後，美國要求所有國家遵循國際法，如聯合國海洋法公約，但美國自己卻並未批准或遵循這些協議。在沒有法律依據的情況下，美國無法說服其對手按照自己說的做。美國相互矛盾的政策會讓人感到困惑，甚至可能產生反效果。因此，美國必須針對自己擔憂的問題作出回應，並在一些限制與規範上劃清界線。
總之，這三次演說表明美國意在恢復基於規則的國際秩序，並維護國際穩定。美國希望透過加強聯盟和與其競爭對手，特別是俄羅斯和中國和解，來實現這些目標。目前，美國的優先任務是把俄羅斯帶到談判桌上，並歡迎其他國家堂是進行調解，共同和平解決烏克蘭危機。美國承諾自己和其盟友將支持烏克蘭目前的戰爭和戰後的重建工作。此外，美國還希望與其歐洲和印太地區的盟友和夥伴共同促進地區穩定。雖然美國尋求與對手和解，但其政策是相互矛盾的，很容易會被誤解。目前，許多國家是相對歡迎美國恢復領導地位，並需要美國的影響力來鞭策俄羅斯和中國，但美國必須有明確和一致的政策來實現其戰略目標。
On June 2, 2023, Lloyd Austin, the US Secretary of Defense, Antony Blinken, the US Secretary of State, and Jake Sullivan, the US National Security Advisor, gave speeches on three separate occasions. Although the addresses were directed at different audiences, they carried similar messages: restore the international order by revitalizing US alliances and reconciling with its rivals. Austin, Blinken, and Sullivan blamed Russia for upending the post-Cold War international order and sought to restore it. Further, Austin and Blinken emphasized the importance of US alliances and partnerships, especially with European and Indo-Pacific countries, in denying Russia a victory in the ongoing Russo-Ukrainian War and deterring future aggressions. Austin, Blinken, and Sullivan also stressed the importance of cooperating with Russia and China to restore rule-based international order for global peace, preserve global stability, and prevent future conflicts. Despite heavy criticisms of Russia and China, Austin, Blinken, and Sullivan are optimistic that Moscow and Beijing will eventually talk to the US, as maintaining global stability is a shared interest. While the speeches underlined the key strategic outlook of Biden’s administration, the policies may be contradictory or ineffective in achieving Biden’s strategic aims.
This commentary will proceed as follow: First, I will note the key points of the speeches. Second, I will comment on the similarities of these speeches, specifically on alliances and the US’s willingness to engage with its rivals. Third, based on these speeches, I will briefly analyze the prospects and challenges of Biden’s future foreign policies.
1.Key Takeaways
The US Secretary of Defense, Lloyd Austin, gave remarks on “A Shared Vision for the Indo-Pacific” at the Shangri-La Dialogue in Singapore. Austin praised Indo-Pacific countries for progressing towards the shared vision of a free and open Indo-Pacific and emphasized the importance of the vision for regional peace and prosperity. Next, Austin pointed out how Indo-Pacific countries took responsibility for maintaining regional security, addressing global challenges, and mending differences through dialogues. Austin highlighted the efforts the US made in reinforcing military alliances and partnerships in the Indo-Pacific region to deter aggression, improve regional security, and enhance international norms. Austin asserted the US commitment to support its allies in upholding their rights and sovereignty, defending against coercion, and preserving the status quo in the Taiwan Strait. Austin reiterated that the US did not seek a Cold War with China nor wanted strategic competition with China to evolve into an all-out conflict. Austin hopes to bolster the guardrails against conflicts and increase communications with Chinese military leaders to avoid misunderstanding and miscalculations. Finally, Austin underscored the US commitment to ensure peace and prosperity in the Indo-Pacific Region and uphold the principles of free, open, and secure Indo-Pacific.
Antony Blinken, the US Secretary of State, gave a speech titled “Russia’s Strategic Failure and Ukraine’s Secure Future” in Helsinki, Finland. Blinken started by hailing Finland’s ascension into NATO and compared the similarities between the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022 with the Soviet Union’s invasion of Finland in 1939. In 2021, The US tried to stop Russia from invading Ukraine through diplomatic channels and address mutual security concerns, but Russia chose the path of aggression. The US has no choice but to assist Ukraine, sanction Russia, and strengthen NATO with like-minded allies, enabling Ukraine to hold up against Russia until now. According to Blinken, Putin made a severe strategic blunder by invading Ukraine, which diminished Russia’s national power, interest, and global influence. The invasion also united NATO and like-minded countries to support the Ukrainian defense, help Ukraine to rebuild, and fortify Ukraine against future aggression. Yet, Blinken stressed that neither the US nor NATO are the enemies of Russia and wished to resolve the conflict through diplomacy. Blinken also emphasized the importance of the United Nations Charter in ensuring lasting peace, sovereignty, territorial integrity, and independence. Finally, Blinken admitted that a Russia-Ukraine ceasefire might come soon but insisted that any peace agreements must be in accordance with the UN Charter, include the return of seized land to the Ukrainians, and ensure everlasting peace.
In the Arms Control Association (ACA) Annual Forum, the US National Security Advisor, Jake Sullivan, gave some remarks. Sullivan started by acknowledging the importance of the ACA in limiting nuclear weapons proliferation, but the Russian invasion of Ukraine destabilized the nuclear order. Sullivan also criticized China for its lack of cooperation and reluctance to dialogue despite being a nuclear power. Further, DPRK and Iran also showed nuclear belligerence. Sullivan believes Russia, China, DPRK, and Iran undermined the post-Cold War nuclear order. Thus, the US needs new strategies to maintain the goals of arms control. First, the US would improve its nuclear deterrence capabilities by modernizing its nuclear program and expanding its nuclear umbrella with its allies. Second, the US would introduce new arms control and risk reduction proposals that include Russia and China. Finally, Sullivan emphasized the importance of US global leadership and controlled strategic competition to avert nuclear risks.
2.Restoring the International Order through Alliances and Dialogues
Although the themes and audiences of the three speeches were different, they carried the same message: restore the rule-based international order. Austin and Blinken underlined the key principles of sovereignty, territorial integrity, and independence within the international order. These principles were overturned when Russia invaded Ukraine despite security assurances and warnings from the US and NATO. The ensuing bloodbath unites the US-led alliances to support Ukraine’s defense with an unwavering pledge until Russia withdraws completely from Ukraine and returns occupied territory to Ukraine. It shows the alliance’s commitment to restoring the international order to its pre-war condition.
Austin and Sullivan emphasized the importance of adhering to international law in maintaining regional and global stability. Austin took a swipe at China for their aggressive behavior in international sea and airspace and insisted all actors follow the legally binding 2016 South China Sea Arbitration. Sullivan’s speech is most significant in this aspect. He criticized Russia for toppling the nuclear order by suspending the New START Treaty and withdrawing from the Treaty on Conventional Forces. Putin even enhanced Russia’s nuclear capabilities, which upset the nuclear arms control framework. Sullivan also chastised China for its reluctance to join global nuclear control frameworks despite amassing at least 1500 nuclear warheads during peacetime. In short, the US blamed Russia and China for flouting international law and disturbing international stability.
To restore the rule-based international order and preserve the integrity of international law, they proposed strengthening alliances and resolving differences with US rivals, especially Russia and China, through constructive dialogues. The US implements the following policies to reinforce alliances and partnerships:
- Increase and modernize US military forces, communication infrastructure, and nuclear capabilities to improve deterrence and forward presence. Austin mentioned that the US invested an additional $61 billion to procure modern fighter aircraft, ships, unmanned platforms, hypersonic missiles, and cyber capabilities. Austin also pledged to deploy the 12th Marine Littoral Regiment, US’s most advanced formation in the US Marine Corps, in Japan by 2025. Sullivan remarked that the US is modernizing its nuclear program by replacing its nuclear-capable platforms, obtaining next-generation nuclear communication, control, and communication infrastructure, and developing frontier non-nuclear capabilities.
- Extending cooperation in military technology research and development with allies. The US is co-developing key defense systems with India and Japan and nuclear-powered submarines with Great Britain and Australia through AUKUS. The US is committed to modernizing NATO’s nuclear deterrence capabilities with its partners.
- Enhance partners’ deterrence ability and military interoperability. The US, Japan, and the Republic of Korea are improving their interoperability to better share information about missile threats from North Korea. The US discouraged its Indo-Pacific allies from developing nuclear weapons; therefore, the US extended its nuclear umbrella to its partners.
- Broaden military engagement with regional allies and multilateral organizations. The US increased engagement with ASEAN through the ASEAN Defense Minister Meeting-Plus and pledged to improve maritime domain awareness with its Pacific Island partners. Sullivan mentioned that the US is leading results-based discussions in forums on arms controls.
The US acknowledged that they must resolve their differences with Russia and China and manage their strategic competition responsibly. The current priority is ending the Russia-Ukraine War. The US failed to stop Russia’s atrocity through diplomacy, resulting in the loss of thousands of lives, displaced millions, and disrupted global food and energy supplies. Yet, given the current state of war, Blinken is optimistic that Russia will eventually put down its arms and opt for diplomacy. The US would facilitate peace negotiations and welcomes any mediation attempts by other countries to resolve the conflict by the principles of the UN Charter.
Austin hopes to bolster the Indo-Pacific region’s peace, security, and stability through diplomacy. He asserted the necessity of open lines of communication with his Chinese counterparts, not just a symbolic handshake, to avoid misunderstandings and miscalculations. Further, Austin treated China as a great power. Therefore, he wishes China could be more transparent and responsible in managing US-China relations instead of being reluctant to engage. It shows that the US is enthusiastic about mending ties with China to prevent great power conflict in the Indo-Pacific region, but it is up to China to take up the olive branch.
Sullivan hopes to reinforce nuclear arms control and reduce nuclear risks in the new nuclear age. First, the US would engage in bilateral arms control agreements with Russia and China, but they must be held accountable. Further, the US would comply with the arms control agreements but would retaliate proportionately if other parties violate them. As the New START treaty expires in 2026, the US hopes to extend the control framework with Russia beyond 2026 and discuss nuclear arms control measures with China to manage strategic competition, avoid conflict, and increase global security. Second, the US hopes the P5 (powers with nuclear programs) members, especially Russia and China, can be more responsible in managing nuclear risks and the arms race through dialogue, transparency, and agreements.
3.Prospect and Challenges of Biden’s Foreign Policy
During Trump’s administration, the US almost abandoned its global leadership completely and irked many of its allies, throwing the international order into disarray. When Biden took office, his administration worked hard to regain its partners’ trust, only to be hampered by domestic politics and the COVID-19 pandemic. However, Putin’s invasion of Ukraine allowed the US to show its global leadership and indispensable role in protecting the rule-based international order. Although the Biden administration failed to stop Russia’s invasion, it showed its commitment to Ukraine’s defense. The US also garnered international support to assist Ukraine, greatly disrupting Putin’s war plans and allowing Ukrainians to liberate captured regions. The US only hopes to end the conflict peacefully, help Ukraine rebuild, and prevent future aggressions against its allies in the European region.
The Biden administration hopes to relax the strained US-China relations through constructive dialogues in late 2022, only to be hampered by the Chinese spy balloon incident that violated US airspace. China defiantly refused any high-level communication with the US and blamed the US for suppressing their rise. Austin and Sullivan accentuated Washington’s eagerness to make peace and mend differences with China, but it is up to the Beijing government whether to resume high-level diplomatic talks. Ryan Hass from the Brookings Institution recommended that the US prioritize direct and private discussions with Beijing, pause crisis management negotiations and code of conduct for their relationship, and assist Xi in realizing his benign global ambition. China seems unmoved by the US’s plea for high-level dialogues as Biden’s strategy on China is incoherent and often conflicting. Further, China is unwilling to engage with Biden’s officials unless the US clearly understands Xi’s strategic ambitions and national interests. On the bright side, however, there are already medium-level exchanges between Washington and Beijing.
Yet, some of Biden’s strategy contradicts the aims of reconciliation and may further escalate tensions. First, the US justified the need for military modernization and increased force posture to respond to current challenges, deter aggressions, and maintain global stability. However, by doing so, the US is intensifying China’s security dilemma and may lead to increased clashes across different domains, especially in sea and airspace in the Indo-Pacific region. The same can be said about US’s strategy for nuclear arms control. Michael Hirsh commented in Foreign Policy recently, “Sullivan did little to alleviate fears of nuclear brinkmanship tried to prevent an arms race through an arms race.” The US’s public declaration of deepening military ties with its Indo-Pacific partners can be interpreted as an act of chain-ganging against China. Although increased military engagement with allies can increase US partners’ security, China interprets US’s action as containment. Finally, the US asks all countries to adhere to the international, such as the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea, but it did not ratify or follow the agreements. The US cannot persuade its rivals to do as it says without legal grounds. US’s contradictory policies are confusing and may backfire. Therefore, the US must address its concerns and draw a clear line on its limits.
In conclusion, the three speeches indicated US’s intentions to restore the rule-based international order and preserve international stability. The US hopes to achieve the aims by bolstering alliances and reconciling with its rivals, especially Russia and China. Currently, the US’s priority is to resolve the Ukrainian Crisis peacefully by bringing Russia to the negotiation table and welcoming any mediation attempts from other states. The US committed itself and its allies to support Ukraine’s current war and rebuilding efforts after the war ends. Further, the US also hopes to foster regional stability with its allies and partners in Europe and Indo-Pacific. While the US seeks to reconcile with its rivals, its policies are contradictory and can be easily misunderstood. Although many countries welcomed the return of US leadership and needed its influence to whip Russia and China into their places, the US must have clear and consistent policies to achieve its strategic aims.
Austin hopes to bolster the Indo-Pacific region’s peace, security, and stability through diplomacy. He asserted the necessity of open lines of communication with his Chinese counterparts, not just a symbolic handshake, to avoid misunderstandings and miscalculations. Further, Austin treated China as a great power. Therefore, he wishes China could be more transparent and responsible in managing US-China relations instead of being reluctant to engage. It shows that the US is enthusiastic about mending ties with China to prevent great power conflict in the Indo-Pacific region, but it is up to China to take up the olive branch.
Sullivan hopes to reinforce nuclear arms control and reduce nuclear risks in the new nuclear age. First, the US would engage in bilateral arms control agreements with Russia and China, but they must be held accountable. Further, the US would comply with the arms control agreements but would retaliate proportionately if other parties violate them. As the New START treaty expires in 2026, the US hopes to extend the control framework with Russia beyond 2026 and discuss nuclear arms control measures with China to manage strategic competition, avoid conflict, and increase global security. Second, the US hopes the P5 (powers with nuclear programs) members, especially Russia and China, can be more responsible in managing nuclear risks and the arms race through dialogue, transparency, and agreements.
3.Prospect and Challenges of Biden’s Foreign Policy
During Trump’s administration, the US almost abandoned its global leadership completely and irked many of its allies, throwing the international order into disarray. When Biden took office, his administration worked hard to regain its partners’ trust, only to be hampered by domestic politics and the COVID-19 pandemic. However, Putin’s invasion of Ukraine allowed the US to show its global leadership and indispensable role in protecting the rule-based international order. Although the Biden administration failed to stop Russia’s invasion, it showed its commitment to Ukraine’s defense. The US also garnered international support to assist Ukraine, greatly disrupting Putin’s war plans and allowing Ukrainians to liberate captured regions. The US only hopes to end the conflict peacefully, help Ukraine rebuild, and prevent future aggressions against its allies in the European region.
The Biden administration hopes to relax the strained US-China relations through constructive dialogues in late 2022, only to be hampered by the Chinese spy balloon incident that violated US airspace. China defiantly refused any high-level communication with the US and blamed the US for suppressing their rise. Austin and Sullivan accentuated Washington’s eagerness to make peace and mend differences with China, but it is up to the Beijing government whether to resume high-level diplomatic talks. Ryan Hass from the Brookings Institution recommended that the US prioritize direct and private discussions with Beijing, pause crisis management negotiations and code of conduct for their relationship, and assist Xi in realizing his benign global ambition. China seems unmoved by the US’s plea for high-level dialogues as Biden’s strategy on China is incoherent and often conflicting. Further, China is unwilling to engage with Biden’s officials unless the US clearly understands Xi’s strategic ambitions and national interests. On the bright side, however, there are already medium-level exchanges between Washington and Beijing.
Yet, some of Biden’s strategy contradicts the aims of reconciliation and may further escalate tensions. First, the US justified the need for military modernization and increased force posture to respond to current challenges, deter aggressions, and maintain global stability. However, by doing so, the US is intensifying China’s security dilemma and may lead to increased clashes across different domains, especially in sea and airspace in the Indo-Pacific region. The same can be said about US’s strategy for nuclear arms control. Michael Hirsh commented in Foreign Policy recently, “Sullivan did little to alleviate fears of nuclear brinkmanship tried to prevent an arms race through an arms race.” The US’s public declaration of deepening military ties with its Indo-Pacific partners can be interpreted as an act of chain-ganging against China. Although increased military engagement with allies can increase US partners’ security, China interprets US’s action as containment. Finally, the US asks all countries to adhere to the international, such as the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea, but it did not ratify or follow the agreements. The US cannot persuade its rivals to do as it says without legal grounds. US’s contradictory policies are confusing and may backfire. Therefore, the US must address its concerns and draw a clear line on its limits.
In conclusion, the three speeches indicated US’s intentions to restore the rule-based international order and preserve international stability. The US hopes to achieve the aims by bolstering alliances and reconciling with its rivals, especially Russia and China. Currently, the US’s priority is to resolve the Ukrainian Crisis peacefully by bringing Russia to the negotiation table and welcoming any mediation attempts from other states. The US committed itself and its allies to support Ukraine’s current war and rebuilding efforts after the war ends. Further, the US also hopes to foster regional stability with its allies and partners in Europe and Indo-Pacific. While the US seeks to reconcile with its rivals, its policies are contradictory and can be easily misunderstood. Although many countries welcomed the return of US leadership and needed its influence to whip Russia and China into their places, the US must have clear and consistent policies to achieve its strategic aims.