Hoover: 台灣將成為直布羅陀、瑞士和新加坡的結合體？

作者/Author(s): Barry Strauss 

原文來源/Source: Strategic Issue 77, Hoover Institution 胡佛研究所  

日期/Date: 06/13/2022 

主題/Key Topics: Military 

摘要：

美國及其在印太地區的盟友擁有保衛台灣的資金和武器，但他們缺乏行動的意願。美國一再承諾保衛台灣，但不久後卻又退縮了，堅持「戰略模糊」政策。台灣對美國來說是一個具有重要戰略意義的島嶼，但其也存在業餘的志願入伍者、躲避徵兵、軍事人員超齡、軍事概念和裝備陳舊等問題。近年來，台灣政府致力於發展不對稱軍事防禦戰略，即「整體防衛構想」（Overall Defense Concept) (ODC），旨在減緩中國入侵企圖並付出高昂代價，使台灣成為一隻「豪豬」，減緩入侵者的速度和士氣。整體防禦構想可能無法避免中國的入侵，但至少可以為台灣爭取時間，讓美國及其盟國進行干預。台灣國防部強調，中國有可能利用「灰色地帶」壓力：網路戰和封鎖領空和海上，將台灣與世界隔絕。因為解放軍海軍有能力拖延其他國家對台灣的幫助，台灣必須堅持抵抗數週。 

台灣還通過購買愛國者和魚叉導彈、升級 F-16 以及建造本土柴電潛艇來提高其機動性和強大能力，這對在台灣海峽阻礙解放軍至關重要。 

最終，台灣能否及時制止中國，台灣的朋友(特別是美國)是否會表現出保護台灣的決心？ 

Summary:

The US and its allies in the Indo-Pacific Region have the money and weapons to defend Taiwan but lack the will to do it. The US repeatedly promised to defend Taiwan but backed off moments later, adhering to the "strategic ambiguity" policy. Taiwan is a strategically important island for the US but has problems of disinterested and amateurish conscripts, draft dodging, overage military personnel, and obsolete military concepts and equipment.  

Recently, the Taiwanese government committed to an asymmetric military defense strategy, the Overall Defense Concept (ODC), that seeks to slow down and incur a high cost for Chinese invasion attempts, making Taiwan a "porcupine" that slows down and demoralizes invaders. The ODC may not avert the Chinese invasion but may at least buy Taiwan time for the US and its allies to intervene. Taiwan’s defense ministry underscored the potential of China using “gray-zone” pressure: cyberwarfare and blockade of airspace and sea, to cut Taiwan off from the world. Taiwan must hold out for weeks considering PLA Navy's capability to delay help for Taiwan.  

Taiwan has also improvised its military to be more mobile and robust, purchasing Patriot and Harpoon missiles, upgrading the F-16 fleet, and building indigenous diesel-electric submarines that are crucial in hindering PLAN in the Taiwan Strait.  

In the end, can Taiwan stop China timely, and will Taiwan's friends, especially the US, show determination in protecting Taiwan?