作者/Author(s): Christine Abely 

網站來源/Source: War on the Rocks 

日期/Date: 02/22/2024 

關鍵字/Keywords: 制裁、經濟 

摘要：

普丁在烏克蘭持續展開行動說明西方對俄羅斯的制裁成效有限。然而，制裁在減少俄羅斯的戰爭資金、對俄羅斯國內經濟施壓以及阻止其他國家與俄羅斯貿易方面是有效的。然而，西方應加強制裁的執行力度，找出新的制裁目標，並加強二級制裁，才能改變俄羅斯的算盤。 

  • 制裁的主要目的是停止戰爭和推翻普丁政權，雖然沒有成功達成目標，但制裁有效地限制了俄羅斯的經濟和財政。 
  • 制裁可能損害俄羅斯的長期社會經濟前景，而出口管制措施則會阻止俄羅斯從其他國家獲得尖端技術的機會。 
  • 從長遠來看，俄羅斯的國內經濟可能會受到重創，驅使普丁結束俄烏戰爭。 
  • 西方可以採取更多措施來監督和執行對俄羅斯原油的價格上限，防止非制裁國家以高於價格上限的價格購買原油。
  • 西方可以協調出一個法律架構，提高對俄制裁的有效性，防止其他國家幫助俄羅斯。 
Summary: 
Western sanctions on Russia had limited success because Putin continued its operations in Ukraine. However, the sanctions are effective in reducing Russia's funds to fight its war, pressuring Russia's domestic economy, and stopping other countries from doing business with Russia. Yet, the West should tighten the enforcement of sanctions, identify new targets, and enhance secondary sanctions to change Russia's calculus. 
  • The key aims of the sanctions were to stop the war and topple Putin's regime, but they failed. However, the sanctions succeeded in constraining Russia's economy and finances. 
  • The sanctions may also harm Russia's long-term socio-economic prospects. Export control measures also prevent Russia from obtaining cutting-edge technologies from other countries. 
  • In the long term, Russia's domestic economy may be devastated, such that it would influence Putin's decision to end the Russo-Ukraine war. 
  • The West could do more to monitor and enforce its price cap on Russian crude oil to prevent non-sanctioning countries from buying it above the price cap. 
  • The West could coordinate a legal framework to increase the effectiveness of the sanctions towards Russia and prevent other countries from helping Russia. 
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