作者/Author(s): Andrew S. Erickson, Gabriel B. Collins, and Matt Pottinger 

網站來源/Source: Foreign Affairs 

日期/Date: 02/16/2024 

關鍵字/Keywords： 國際規則、嚇阻 
 

從秩序到混亂 

  • 如果中國吞併台灣，中國可以擴大其行動範圍，佔領有爭議的陸地和海域。 
  • 日本將直接受到威脅，而美軍要進入西太平洋也會更加複雜，從而威脅菲律賓和其他東南亞國家。 
  • 成功奪取台灣將助長中國在其他區域稱霸全球的野心。我們無法預料中國作為全球大國會如何行事，但它不會像美國那麼溫和，而且會挑戰冷戰後美國主導的國際秩序。
  • 亞洲國家不願意接受中國的領導，但如果沒有美國的干預，他們很容易就會屈服。 
核擴散問題 
  • 如果世界不再相信美國有能力能保護台灣，其盟國將自我保護並發展核武器。 
  • 日本和韓國正在考慮生產核武器。這也會帶動其他國家擴大核武器庫，引發無法控制的核擴散問題。
經濟封鎖 
  • 如果中國成為區域霸主，將限制西方進入亞洲的經濟通道。美國的門羅主義就是阻止歐洲進入西半球的典型例子。 
  • 美國將失去進入活力和開放的經濟集團的機會，甚至可能需要撤資。 
  • 中國吞併台灣後，將帶動亞洲國家更廣泛使用人民幣，並推動整個地區去美元化。 
新西柏林 
幾十年前，美國就已經擔心台灣淪陷會產生連鎖反應，對美國的重要利益造成不利影響。如果中國取得勝利，將動搖數十年來以美國為中心的自由國際秩序。美國現在就必須採取行動，防止台灣被吞併。
 
From Order to Disorder 
  • If China annexed Taiwan, China could expand its operations to capture contested land and sea territories. 
  • Japan is directly under threat as China could launch attacks on Japan from Taiwan. It would also complicate US military access to the Western Pacific, thus threatening the Philippines and other Southeast Asian countries. 
  • Success in taking Taiwan would fuel China's ambition of global preeminence in other continents. It is impossible to anticipate how China would behave as a global power, but it would be less benign than the US and would challenge the post-Cold War US-led international order. 
  • Asian countries are reluctant to accept Chinese leadership but would capitulate easily without US intervention. 
The Proliferation Problem 
  • If the world loses faith in the US's ability to protect Taiwan, its allies will pursue nuclear weapons for self-protection.
  • Japan and South Korea are considering to produce nuclear weapons. It would also drive other countries to expand their nuclear arsenals, causing uncontrollable nuclear proliferation.
Economic Exclusion 
  • China would restrict the West economic access to Asia if it becomes a regional hegemon. The US's Monroe Doctrine is a canonical example that stops European entry into the Western Hemisphere. 
  • The US would lose access to the most vibrant and open economic bloc and may need to withdraw its investments from the region. 
  • The annexation of Taiwan would compel Asian countries to use the Chinese yuan widely in their economies and drive a regionwide de-dollarization. 
The New West Berlin 
The US already feared the chain reaction from Taiwan's fall that would adversely impact the US's vital interests decades ago. If China is victorious, it would cause an upheaval in the decades-long US-centric liberal international order. It is imperative that the US act now to prevent Taiwan's annexation. 
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