作者/Author(s): Andrew S. Erickson, Gabriel B. Collins, and Matt Pottinger 

網站來源/Source: Foreign Affairs 

日期/Date: 02/16/2024 

關鍵字/Keywords： 國際規則、嚇阻

摘要：

台灣對世界意義重大，它是民主國家抵抗專制對手的象徵，也是重要的半導體生產國。如今習近平決心不擇手段統一台灣，美國和世界其他國家必須明白保護台灣的重要性。 

捍衛民主 

  • 自冷戰以來，台灣一直是一個「永不沉沒的航空母艦」，用來遏制共產主義，也是一個「繁榮的經濟體」。 
  • 台灣是目前世界上民主等級最高的國家之一，秉持民主原則，擁有經濟和社會上的公平正義。 
  • 雖然全球民主制度正在衰退也存在缺陷，但台灣人堅信民主是最好的治理體制。 
  • 失去台灣意味著失去一個具有重要中華傳統的民主國家，也意味著努力推動中國民主化最終徒勞無功 
晶片戰爭 
  • 台灣作為半導體的主要生產地，在數據驅動的世界中至關重要。台灣相對廉價但可靠的半導體有助於推動新興技術進步，包含人工智慧領域都將受惠。
  • 如果失去台灣的半導體，全球技術發展將受到嚴重破壞。與有豐富替代品的天然氣和石油不同，要替代台灣的半導體幾乎不太可能。 
  • 即使中國保留了台灣的晶片廠，被破壞的基礎設施及西方的制裁將阻礙半導體生產鏈。 
  • 如果中國控制了台灣的晶片代工廠，無論工廠被破壞的程度如何，世界都將遭受損失。 
Summary: 
Taiwan is significant to the world as a symbol of a democracy resisting an authoritarian adversary and a critical producer of semiconductors. As Xi Jinping is determined to reunify Taiwan by all means, the US and the rest of the world must understand the importance of protecting Taiwan. 

Defending Democracy 
  • Taiwan has been important as an "unsinkable aircraft carrier" for containing communism and a "prosperous economic unit" since the Cold War.  
  • Taiwan is currently one of the highest-ranking democracies in the world that adheres to democratic principles with an economically and socially equitable society. 
  • Despite democracy decaying globally and being flawed, the Taiwanese firmly believe democracy is the best governing system. 
  • Losing Taiwan spells the end of an important democracy with a significant Chinese heritage and the futility of democratizing China.  
Chip Wars 
  • In a data-driven world, Taiwan is crucial as the main producer of semiconductors. Taiwan's relatively cheap but reliable semiconductors helped drive the recent technological advancements, especially in artificial intelligence. 
  • The loss of Taiwan's semiconductors would cause a massive disruption of the global technological growth. Unlike gas and oil, which have abundant alternatives, it is impossible or impractical to substitute Taiwan's semiconductors.
  • Even if China leaves Taiwanese foundries intact, the destruction of basic infrastructure and the possibility of Western sanctions would hamper the production of semiconductors. 
  • The world would suffer if China controlled Taiwanese chip foundries, regardless of the level of destruction to the production plants. 
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