作者/Author(s): Eric Schmidt
網站來源/Source: Foreign Affairs
日期/Date: 01/22/2024
關鍵字/Keywords: 科技、軍事
摘要：
在俄烏危機初期，烏克蘭曾有效地利用無人機來識別、追蹤和摧毀俄羅斯目標。但除了極度寒冷的冬季外，俄羅斯幾乎都在快速生產無人機和反無人機能力，以削弱烏克蘭在作戰中使用無人機的能力。烏克蘭及其盟國必須增加國防生產和創新投資，以應對俄羅斯的新型無人機。
- 烏克蘭的無人機行動成功摧毀了俄羅斯黑海艦隊，打擊俄羅斯境內的縱深目標和前線的坦克。
- 然而，俄羅斯軍隊學習並仿效烏克蘭戰術後，烏克蘭的無人機作戰能力已經失去優勢。雖然西方支持烏克蘭，但俄羅斯的電子戰和防空系統更加出色，並有效破壞並阻止了烏克蘭的無人機作戰。
- 俄羅斯還生產了大量的無人機和彈藥，數量甚至比烏克蘭和西方聯盟加起來的還多。雖然俄羅斯的無人機還無法攻擊到基輔，但俄羅斯可能會使用升級版無人機來對抗烏克蘭的防空系統。
- 俄羅斯還試圖通過網路攻擊來切斷烏克蘭的通訊。雖然目前還未成氣候，但這已經證明俄羅斯可以在多個戰線上發動行動。
- 俄羅斯目前比烏克蘭擁有更靈活的戰爭經濟、更多的武器生產和更多的人口，烏克蘭贏得戰爭的希望越來越渺茫。此外，西方國家不願繼續支持烏克蘭，也削弱了烏克蘭取勝的機會。
- 專家認為，當雙方採取進攻性行動時，俄烏戰爭可能會以無人機為中心。烏克蘭要改進其空戰能力，也需要更多的防空平台、遠程飛彈和增強的電子戰能力來贏得這場戰爭。
In the early stage of the Ukrainian Crisis, Ukraine utilized drones effectively to identify, track, and destroy Russian targets. Apart from the extremely cold winter, Russia's ability to produce more drones and anti-drone capabilities undermines Ukraine's ability to use drones in its operations. Ukraine and its allies must increase defense production and invest in innovations to counter Russia's new drones.
- Ukraine's drone operations succeeded in destroying the Russian Black Sea Fleet, striking deep targets in Russia, and attacking tanks at the front line.
- However, Ukraine lost its upper hand in drone warfare after Russian forces learned and copied Ukraine's tactics and improvised from them. Despite the West's support for Ukraine, Russia's electronic warfare and anti-aircraft systems are better, disrupting and stopping Ukraine's drone operations.
- Russia also produced a massive number of drones and munitions compared to Ukraine and the West combined. Although Russian drones cannot attack Kyiv yet, Russia may use upgraded drones at a large number to counter Ukraine's air defenses.
- Russia also tried cyberattacks to shut down Ukrainian communications. Although its success is insignificant currently, it proves Russia can wage operations on multiple fronts.
- Ukraine's prospect of winning the war is diminishing, especially when Russia currently has a resilient war economy, increased weapons production, and more population. The West's reluctance to continue supporting Kyiv also undermined Ukraine's chances to win.
- The Russo-Ukraine War may be drone-centric when both sides resume their offensive operations. Besides improving its hardware, Ukraine needs more anti-aircraft platforms, long-range missiles, and enhanced electronic warfare capabilities to win the war.