作者/Author(s): Emma Ashford and Kelly A. Grieco 

網站來源/Source: Foreign Affairs 

日期/Date: 1/10/2024 

關鍵字/Keywords: 國防 

摘要：

由於國內政治限制、公眾對基輔的支持減少以及烏克蘭軍隊進展不明，美國國會暫停了對烏克蘭的軍事資助。美國不應將重點放在昂貴的進攻能力上，而應讓烏克蘭通過防禦取得勝利，雖然這會需要更長的時間。 

勝利理論 

  • 美國希望烏克蘭的勝利是收復所有失地，但政治和物質資源限制，導致這一目標無法實現。
  • 烏克蘭也可以與俄羅斯和平談判結束衝突。然而，目前的局勢更有利於普丁，這對烏克蘭不公平。 
  • 烏克蘭試圖發動心理戰，通過無人機襲擊削弱公眾對俄羅斯戰爭的支持，但也未能取得成功。 
  • 經過近兩年的戰爭，普丁的戰略目標是削弱烏克蘭政府，獲得最大量的烏克蘭土地，阻止烏克蘭更深入地融入歐洲。 
防守方面 
  • 目前的戰場有利於防守，但烏克蘭需要特定要素才能成功。
  • 烏克蘭需要建立一個深壕溝、預定的射擊位置、反坦克地雷和反坦克阻擋物的防禦線系統。這種分層的防守可以有效保護烏克蘭軍隊，使其能夠抵禦俄羅斯的進攻行動。建造防禦線和購買反坦克地雷的成本也相對較低。然而，美國及其盟友應合作，減輕對平民的地雷風險，並規劃未來的排雷行動。
 
Summary: 
The US military funding for Ukraine is on hold by Congress due to domestic political constraints, dwindling public support for Kyiv, and the lack of progress from the Ukrainian Army. Instead of focusing on expensive offensive capabilities, the US should let Ukraine achieve victory through defense, although it will take longer.  

Theories of Victory 
  • The US expects Ukraine to win by reclaiming all its lost territories, but political and material constraints make this end impossible. 
  • Ukraine can also negotiate peace with Russia to end the conflict. However, the current situation favors Putin more than Ukraine, making it unfair for Ukraine. 
  • Ukraine's attempt to launch psychological warfare aiming to undermine public support for the war in Russia through drone attacks also failed.  
  • After nearly two years of war, Putin's strategic objectives are to weaken the Ukrainian government, gain as much Ukrainian land as possible, and prevent deeper Ukraine integration with Europe. 
  • The White House is increasingly pushing Ukraine to shift to a defensive strategy. Although the strategy aims to rebuild offensive capabilities for future counterattacks, it can be calibrated to deny Putin the ability to achieve his strategic objectives. 
On the Defense 
  • The current battlefield favors defense, but Ukraine needs specific elements to succeed. 
  • Ukraine needs to build a system of defensive lines consisting of deep trenches, predetermined firing positions, anti-tank mines, and anti-tank barriers. The layered defense could significantly protect Ukrainian troops and allow them to withstand Russian offensive operations. It is also cheaper to build defensive lines and procure anti-tank mines. However, the US and its allies should cooperate to mitigate the risk of mines on civilians and plan future de-mining operations. 
 
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