作者/Author(s): Emma Ashford and Kelly A. Grieco 

網站來源/Source: Foreign Affairs 

日期/Date: 1/10/2024 

關鍵字/Keywords: 國防 

摘要：

國防（續）  

  • 烏克蘭應堅持空中戰力，至少要讓雙方都無法穩定獲得制空權。由於俄羅斯的防空體系極為致命，烏克蘭無法憑有限的戰機取得對俄制空權。但是，只要烏克蘭不放棄空中戰力，就可以阻止俄羅斯完全獲得制空權。目前西方防空飛彈的庫存不足，烏克蘭應該謹慎選擇目標，並將西方技術與蘇聯時代的裝備整合，以緩解供應短缺。
  • 烏克蘭必須擴大國內武器製造，減少對西方武器供應的依賴，這將凸顯烏克蘭即使在沒有西方支持的情況下也要抵抗俄羅斯的決心。 
  • 防守戰略對烏克蘭而言極具價值，因為它削弱了普京的戰略目標，緩解了烏克蘭的兵力短缺。防手戰略的成本比較低，可行性較高，較容易爭取西方的支持。 
發出支持信號  
  • 白宮必須向烏克蘭、俄羅斯和世界其他國家發出明確的資訊。 
  • 雖然烏克蘭可能反對，但美國必須向烏克蘭澄清，美國不會支持烏克蘭未來的進攻行動，但會幫助烏克蘭加強防禦。美國應呼籲烏克蘭堅守現有領土，利用防守戰略延長戰鬥時間，確保烏克蘭有更大的勝算。
  • 為了嚇阻俄羅斯，白宮應與國會協商，撥款預算資助更便宜好用的防禦系統，並幫助烏克蘭擴大防禦製造部門。 
  • 美國應呼籲歐洲，烏克蘭採用防守戰略，會讓西方聯盟變化更具韌性，並更有效地阻止俄羅斯侵略。
 
Summary: 
On the Defense (Continued) 
  • Ukraine should prioritize maintaining the skies contested, such that neither side has air superiority. Ukraine cannot achieve air superiority over Russia with limited fighter jets because Russia's anti-air defenses are highly lethal. However, by prioritizing air defenses, Ukraine could deny Russia control of the sky. With the low inventory of Western anti-air missiles, Ukraine should select its target carefully and integrate Western technologies with its Soviet-era equipment to alleviate the supply shortage. 
  • Ukraine must expand its domestic weapons manufacturing and reduce reliance on Western arms supplies. It would show Ukraine's resolve to resist Russia even without Western support. 
  • A defense strategy is valuable for Ukraine because it undermines Putin's strategic objectives and mitigates Ukraine's shortage of troops. Defense also attracts Western support due to its lower cost and viability. 
Signaling Support 
  • The White House must send a clear message to Ukraine, Russia, and the rest of the world. 
  • Despite possible objections from Ukraine, the US must clarify with Ukraine that it will not support Ukraine's future offensive operations but will help Ukraine boost its defenses. The US should ensure Ukraine has a better chance of winning by holding onto its current territory and prolonging the fight through defense. 
  • To deter Russia, the White House should compromise with Congress for a smaller budget to fund cheaper defensive systems for Ukraine and help Ukraine broaden its defense manufacturing sector. 
  • The US should appeal to Europe that a defensive strategy would be more resilient against changes in the Western alliance and effective in stopping Russian aggression. 
 
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