作者/Author(s): Bonny Lin, Brian Hart, Chen Ming-Chi, Shen Ming-Shih, Samantha Lu, Truly Tinsley, and Yu-Jie (Grace) Liao 

網站來源/Source: Center for Strategic and International Studies 

日期/Date: 01/22/2024 

關鍵字/Keywords: 美中臺關係 

 

 摘要： 

更多詳細圖表，請參閱報告。 

美國及其盟國將如何應對？

  • 專家認為，如果中國隔離、封鎖或入侵損害台灣本島，那麼美國將進行軍事干預。 
  • 對於美國的盟友和夥伴是否會保衛台灣，人們的信心不高。 
  • 大多數專家認為，要阻止中國對台灣使用武力，可信的威脅必須大於可信的保證。
地緣政治發展的影響  
  • 專家認為，中國將加強其在台灣周圍的非軍事脅迫行動和大規模軍事演習，向台灣施壓。
  • 幾乎所有人都相信中國會在台灣大選後採取一些行動。大多數專家認為，北京會等到台灣新總統對兩岸政策做出重大改變後再採取行動。另一種情況是，無論台灣新總統做什麼，中國都有可能在 2024 年 5 月就職典禮前後升級緊張局勢。不過，台灣專家認為前者的可能性更大，而美國專家認為後者的可能性更大。 
  • 專家認為，如果台灣的新兩岸政策有利於北京，中國也將減少敵意，視為一種回報。
  • 大多數專家認為2024年高機率會發生台海危機，而且穩定的中美關係也無法紓解這個危機。
  • 大多數受訪者認為，中國經濟放緩會迫使中國繼續對台灣使用武力。然而，約三分之一的受訪者認為這反而會降低中國使用武力的可能性。 

 
Summary: 
For detailed graphs, please read the report. 

How would the US and its allies respond? 
  • Experts believe the US would militarily intervene if China harmed Taiwan's main island through quarantine, blockade, or invasion. 
  • There is limited faith that US allies and partners will defend Taiwan. 
  • Most experts believe credible threats must be more than credible assurances in deterring China from using force against Taiwan. 
Implication of Geopolitical Developments 
  • Experts believe China would increase its non-military coercive actions and large-scale military exercises around Taiwan to pressure Taiwan. 
  • There is little belief that China would not take any escalatory action after the Taiwan elections. Most experts believe Beijing would wait until the new Taiwan president implements significant cross-strait policy changes before taking action. Another scenario is that regardless of what the new Taiwan president does, China would likely escalate tensions before or after the inauguration in May 2024. However, Taiwanese experts suggest the former has a higher possibility, while US experts perceive the latter as more likely. 
  • If Taiwan's new cross-strait policies favor Beijing, experts believe China would reciprocate Taiwan's goodwill by reducing hostility.
  • Most experts believe a Taiwan Strait crisis will happen in 2024 and that efforts to stabilize US-China relations will not mitigate the crisis.
  • Most respondents believe the Chinese economic slowdown would remain China's use of force against Taiwan. Yet, around 1/3 of respondents suggest it would decrease the possibility of Chinese use of force. 
 
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