作者/Author(s): Bonny Lin, Brian Hart, Chen Ming-Chi, Shen Ming-Shih, Samantha Lu, Truly Tinsley, and Yu-Jie (Grace) Liao 

網站來源/Source: Center for Strategic and International Studies 

日期/Date: 01/22/2024 

關鍵字/Keywords: 美中臺關係

摘要：

 2016 年，民進黨蔡英文就任總統以後，兩岸關係一直處於冷戰狀態，敵意不斷升級。2024 年 5 月，民進黨將在賴清德的領導下繼續統治台灣，鑑於賴清德比蔡英文更傾向獨立，專家們擔心北京會如何應對台海情勢。同時，美國一再對台灣表達象徵性支持，激怒了北京，形同火上澆油。雖然美中關係自2023年中期以來趨於穩定，但2024年台灣總統選舉的結果，可能會加強中國在台灣周邊地區的侵略行為。此項調查由CSIS「China Power」項目和台灣國防安全研究院合作進行，探討了2024年台灣總統選舉後台灣海峽可能發展的情況。以下是主要觀察，詳細的圖表請閱讀報告。 

中國的能力 
  • 中國有能力隔離或封鎖台灣，但沒有足夠的能力入侵台灣。
  • 大多數專家認為僅靠封鎖無法迫使台灣屈服，中國必須入侵才能實現統一。 
  • 習近平2027年解放軍現代化的時間不是不重要。中國可能會在任何時間點隔離、封鎖或入侵台灣。​​​​​​​

未來五年內會左右北京使用武力的因素 

  • 專家們認為中國將隔離台灣各島，以達到強迫和懲罰的效果，尤其是針對台灣的離島。 
  • 北京最有可能訴諸封鎖台灣，迫使統一，然後進行入侵。隔離是最不可能的選擇。 
  • 美國專家認為，中國會採取隔離手段向台灣施壓，但不會升級為武裝衝突。但台灣專家認為，除了上述動機外，隔離也可能是為封鎖或入侵做準備。一些專家甚至認為，中國會利用隔離台灣的方式，試探國際社會的反應。
  • 大多數專家認為，在沒有美國干預的情況下，台灣只能持續三個月，而中國可以在至少一年或更長的時間內維持高強度的衝突。 
  • 雖然大多數美國和台灣專家認為中國不會訴諸核武器，約44%的美國專家認為中國可能會訴諸核武。 
 
Summary: 
Cross-strait relations have been frosty with escalating hostility in recent years since Tsai Ing-Wen from the DPP became Taiwan's president in 2016. As the DPP will continue to rule Taiwan under William Lai in May 2024, experts are concerned about how Beijing will respond, given Lai is more pro-independent than Tsai. Adding fuel to the fire is the deteriorating US-China relations, in which the US repeatedly showed symbolic support to Taiwan, infuriating Beijing. Although US-China relations have stabilized since mid-2023, China may increase its aggressiveness around Taiwan depending on the outcome of the 2024 presidential elections in Taiwan. This survey, a collaboration between the CSIS China Power Project and Taiwan's INDSR, interviewed US and Taiwan experts on the possible developments in the Taiwan Strait after the 2024 Taiwan Presidential Elections. The following are the main observations; for detailed graphs, please read the report. 

​​​​​​​China's Capabilities 
  • China has the ability to quarantine or blockade Taiwan but does not have enough capacity to invade. 
  • Most experts believe a blockade alone is insufficient to capitulate Taiwan, and China must invade to achieve unification.
  • Xi's 2027 deadline for PLA's modernization is insignificant. China will quarantine, blockade, or invade Taiwan regardless of the timing. 
Factors Affecting Beijing's Use of Force (in the next five years) 
  • Experts believe China will quarantine Taiwan to coerce and punish Taiwan, especially on Taiwan's outlying islands.
  • Beijing would most likely resort to blockading Taiwan to force a unification, then invasion. Quarantine is the least likely option. 
  • US experts believe China would quarantine Taiwan to pressure Taiwan but not escalate it into an armed conflict. However, Taiwanese experts suggest apart from the motive mentioned earlier, a quarantine can also be a preparation for blockade or invasion. Some experts even commented China is testing the water of international response by quarantining Taiwan. 
  • Most experts believe Taiwan can only last up to 3 months without US intervention, and China can sustain a high-intensity conflict for at least one year or beyond. 
  • Although most US and Taiwan experts believe China would not resort to nuclear weapons, around 44 percent of US experts believe China would.
回上層