作者/Author(s): Michael Poznansky 

網站來源/Source: Foreign Affairs 

日期/Date: 01/05/2024 

關鍵字/Keywords: 嚇阻

摘要：

俄烏危機已屆兩周年，這場衝突耗盡了美國大量的武器庫存，導致美國處於十字路口上。美國決策者對於要繼續支持烏克蘭，還是投入更多資源幫助台灣嚇阻中國爭論不休 。

  • 無論哪種選擇都會損害美國嚇阻戰略的可信度。美國的嚇阻可能在兩個方面失敗：
  1. 美國有意願要戰鬥，但沒有能力。
  2. 美國有能力，但不願回應。 
  • 由於資源有限，美國必須了解這些選擇中的潛在取捨。 
  1. 一些主張同時支持烏克蘭並為亞洲潛在衝突做好準備的人，認為美國可以同時處理一切。
  2. 然而，台灣和烏克蘭在武器需求方面有重複，這些軍備正在快速減少。 
  3. 雖然台灣的武器交付延遲問題早在俄烏危機之前就有了，但美國決定支持烏克蘭的作法，導致這個問題變得更加嚴重。 
  • 歸根結底，美國必須優先顯示出維護自身聲譽的決心，盡可能提高自身能力，克服種種弊端繼續援助烏克蘭。 ​​​​​​​
  1. 在情境相似的情況下，過去的行動經驗會塑造人們對未來行動的看法，因此下定決策的決心非常重要。 
  2. 若美國在俄羅斯戰敗前就放棄烏克蘭，代表美國缺乏長期作戰的決心。這會導致美國保護台灣的承諾受到質疑。
  3. 美國應該加強其國防工業基地，補充武器庫，請求盟友協助，共同抵制侵略。

Summary: 
As the Ukrainian Crisis prolonged, the US was at a crossroads because the war exhausted its weapons inventory. US policymakers debated whether to continue supporting Ukraine or devote more resources to helping Taiwan deter China.  
 
  • Prioritizing either choice undermines the US's credibility in its deterrence strategy. US deterrence may fail in two ways:  
  1. The US has the will to fight but does not have the capacity. 
  2. The US has the capacity but is unwilling to respond. ​​​​​​​
  • Due to limited resources, the US must understand the potential tradeoffs between those choices.
  1. ​​​​​​​Those advocating for supporting Ukraine while preparing for a potential conflict in Asia think the US can handle everything simultaneously. 
  2. Yet, Taiwan and Ukraine have overlapping weapons requirements, and those armaments are depleting. 
  3. Although Taiwan's weapons delivery backlog happened before the Ukrainian Crisis, supporting Ukraine has worsened the problem. 
  • Ultimately, the US must prioritize showing resolve to maintain its reputation, improve its capability as much as possible, and continue to aid Ukraine despite the drawbacks. ​​​​​​​
  1. Resolve matters because past actions shape the perception of future actions, especially when the scenarios are similar. 
  2. Abandoning Ukraine before Russia's defeat signals that the US lacks the resolve to endure a protracted fight. It also puts the US's commitment to protecting Taiwan in question. 
  3. The US should bolster its defense industrial base to refill its weapons inventory and request help from allies in countering aggression. 
 
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