作者/Author(s): Ali Wyne 

網站來源/Source: Foreign Policy 

日期/Date: 01/09/2024 

關鍵字/Keywords: 經濟


摘要：
雖然經濟增長緩慢，但中國仍然是一個擁有強大經濟、軍事和外交影響力的強國。美國應在對比敘述的基礎上制定與中國競爭的戰略。 
  • 如果中國持續崛起，美國及其盟友必須阻止權力過渡與轉移，維持國際穩定。 
  1. 然而，國內資本限制、不斷增加的一帶一路債務、一帶一路受益國的地緣政治阻礙，以及西方聯盟凝聚力更強，限制了中國超越美國的能力。 
  • 如果中國續續衰落，西方必須阻止中國對台灣的敵意，不要讓中國強制統一台灣當成日薄西山的救星。 ​​​​​​​
  1. 雖然經濟指標不利於中國，但全球經濟趨勢也是衰落，因此中國在與美國競爭時仍擁有巨大優勢。 
  2. 一些知名學者否定了中國對台灣發動入侵作為絕望之舉的可能性。他們認為中國正在韜光養晦，加強其外交影響力。 ​​​​​​​
  • 美國應該如何應對？ ​​​​​​​
  1. 美國對中國的戰略考量基於兩種說法：中國的競爭實力，或中國的競爭劣勢。然而，這兩種說法都令美國擔憂，並促使其採取防禦措施。
  2. 如果美國承認中國是一個在國內和全球範圍內都受到制約的競爭者，那麼華盛頓就必須承認雙方的競爭不會結束，長期處理雙方的關係，為共存鋪平道路。
  3. 此外，美國不太可能在兩國的戰略競爭中完勝中國。兩國都擁有對方無法複製的重大結構性優勢，這會讓美中之間競爭的時間持續拉長，畢竟任何衝突都將使雙方付出沉重代價。 
  4. 美國與中國競爭的最佳方式是振興其國家實力，確保其盟友能夠應對北京將採取的任何行動。
Summary: 
Despite slow economic growth, China is still a powerful country with strong economic, military, and diplomatic influence. The US should formulate its strategy for competition with China based on contrasting narratives. 
 
  • If China steadily rises again, the US and its allies must prevent a power transition to maintain international stability.  
  1. However, domestic capital restrictions, mounting BRI debts, geopolitical hindrances from BRI recipients, and growing cohesion of Western alliances constrain China's ability to overtake the US.  ​​​​​​​
  • If China is declining, the West must dissuade Chinese hostility against Taiwan as China may force reunify Taiwan in desperation.  ​​​​​​​
  1. Although economic indicators do not favor China, they coincide with the global trend, and China still possesses significant strengths in competing with the US. 
  2. Notable scholars dismissed the possibility of a Chinese invasion of Taiwan as an act of desperation. In contrast, China is biding its time and strengthening its diplomatic influence. ​​​​​​​
  • How should the US respond? ​​​​​​​
  1. The US's strategic calculations on China are based on two narratives: emphasizing its competitive strength or highlighting its competitive liabilities. Nevertheless, both narratives worry the US and motivate its defensiveness. 
  2. If the US accepts China as an enduring peer competitor that is domestically and globally constrained, Washington must admit their rivalry will not end, manage their relations over the long term, and pave the way for coexistence. 
  3. Further, the US is unlikely to score a definite win over China in their strategic competition. Both states have significant structural advantages that cannot be replicated by the other and could prolong the contest. Any conflicts would inflict heavy costs on both sides. 
  4. The best way for the US to compete with China is to reinvigorate its national strengths and ensure its allies are prepared to handle whatever steps Beijing will take. 
 
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