作者/Author(s): Kristine Berzina and Jackson Janes 

網站來源/Source: German Marshall Fund 

日期/Date: December 18, 2023 

關鍵字/Keywords: 戰略 

摘要:

自俄烏危機爆發以來,烏克蘭的西方盟國向其聲援了價值數十億美元的援助。然而,隨著俄烏戰爭陷入僵局,烏克蘭要求更多援助,西方盟國疲於奔命,開始不願意向烏克蘭提供更多支持。他們要求烏克蘭同意與俄羅斯停火,尋求與莫斯科的外交解決方案,集中精力重建其保留的領土,並放棄被俄羅斯非法吞併的土地。然而,普丁看中西方的戰略急躁情緒,再上烏克蘭對俄羅斯的戰略評估發生重大失誤,做出承諾允許北約擴張,給了俄羅斯打勝仗的希望。停火對普丁來說是好事,但對烏克蘭和西方來說卻是損失。只要俄羅斯在烏克蘭邊境持續徘徊並重建其戰爭能力,烏克蘭就無法真正實現穩定與和平重建。美國及其合作夥伴將因此面臨危險的戰略後果,歐洲安全受到威脅,在保護世界和平方面的可信度下降。西方喪失戰略耐心也將使中國等對手有空間測試西方國家的誠信,並專注於保護自身利益。西方必須堅守立場,確保他們政治上支持烏克蘭的意願,阻止中國攻擊台灣,促進國際穩定和秩序,鞏固烏克蘭的民主。 

 

Summary: 
Since the Ukrainian Crisis began, Ukraine's Western allies have poured billions of dollars worth of aid into Ukraine as a sign of solidarity. However, as the war is at a stalemate while Ukraine is demanding more assistance, its Western allies are fatigued and increasingly reluctant to provide further support to Ukraine. They asked Ukraine to agree to a cease-fire with Russia, seek a diplomatic solution with Moscow, focus on rebuilding their retained territories, and abandon the land that Russia illegitimately annexed. However, Putin is betting on Western strategic impatience to obtain an undeserved victory, especially when Ukraine has inflicted heavy losses on Russia's strategic calculation, made its people commit to their nationhood, and allowed NATO expansion. A cease-fire will be good enough for Putin, but it is a loss for Ukraine and the West. Ukraine cannot attain stability or reconstruct peacefully as long as Russia lingers along its borders and rebuilds its war capacity. The US and its partners will face perilous strategic consequences for their future global interests by undermining European security and their credibility in protecting world peace. The West's impatience will also allow adversaries like China to test its integrity and focus on protecting its interests. The West must reject the notion of weariness and guarantee their political willingness to support Ukraine to deter China from attacking Taiwan, promote international stability and order, and consolidate democracy in Ukraine.