作者/Author(s): Lyle Goldstein and Nathan Waechter 

網站來源/Source: RAND Corporation 

日期/Date: 09/26/2023 

關鍵字/Keywords: 防衛、地雷 

摘要:

台灣正在從俄烏衝突中學習，將地雷納入「豪豬」戰略，以阻止或減緩中國的入侵。同樣，中國也在觀察地雷在戰旅土地方面的作用，以及如何有效排雷。總而言之，地雷是肉中之刺，因為它們易於部署、致命但難以清除。

  • 雖然烏克蘭使用的是蘇聯時代的布雷車，但它們可以迅速部署地雷，足以拖住俄羅斯。特別是在俄羅斯準備不足的情況下。
  • 烏克蘭還有效地使用了 PFM-1 型「蝴蝶雷」。這種地雷在外觀上與其他地雷不像，卻具有很強的殺傷力。 
  • 然而，當烏克蘭準備使用北約裝甲裝備進行反攻時，俄羅斯集中部署地雷，以阻滯烏克蘭的裝甲車輛，並在近距離摧毀它們。此外，俄羅斯還使用了先進的布雷車，可以更快、更廣地布設地雷。
  • 中國正在研究北約的布雷系統，預測台灣可能採購的設備，了解其能力。 
  • 中國可能會試圖在台灣的佈雷器可以操作或完成佈雷任務之前摧毀它們。因此，中國需要廣泛的監視和情報能力。  
  • 台灣擔心地雷可能會傷害平民，因此不到最後關頭不會使用它。這反而帶給中國更多優勢。
  • 中國長期以來持續投資探雷器，幫助檢測和清除地雷，這意味著他們已經預見這項技術可能會在台海衝突派上用場 。 
  • 解放軍會定期舉辦突破和排雷演習。此外，他們還持續投資於先進和無人掃雷器。
  • 解放軍不希望出現像烏克蘭危機那樣的塹壕戰爭。因此，他們大量投資於空中和直升機突擊能力，避免在台灣海灘出現地雷區。 
Summary: 
Taiwan is learning from the Russo-Ukraine War to incorporate landmines into its "porcupine" strategy to deter or slow down Chinese invasion. Similarly, China is observing the role of landmines in retaining gained territories and how to demine effectively. Ultimately, landmines are thorns in the flesh because they are easy to deploy and deadly but hard to remove. 
  • Although Ukraine used Soviet-era mine-layers, they can deploy landmines quickly enough to stall Russia, especially when Russia is underprepared. 
  • Ukraine also used PFM-1 "Petal" landmines effectively because they do not resemble other landmines in appearance but are highly lethal. 
  • However, as Ukraine prepared for counteroffensive operations with NATO armored equipment, Russia focused on deploying mines to stall Ukraine's armored vehicles and destroy them at close range. Further, Russia also used advanced minelayers that could deploy mines faster and at a wider coverage. 
  • China is studying NATO's mine-laying systems to predict possible equipment that Taiwan will procure and understand its capabilities. 
  • China may try to destroy Taiwan minelayers before they can operate or complete minelaying jobs. Therefore, China would require extensive surveillance and intelligence capacity. 
  • Since Taiwan fears landmines may hurt its population, it will likely use them at the last minute, giving China an advantage. 
  • China has long invested in mine sappers to detect and clear landmines, meaning they already envisioned their need in a Taiwan scenario. 
  • The PLA is conducting breaching and mine-clearing drills regularly. Further, it is investing in advanced and unmanned minesweepers. 
  • The PLA wants to prevent trench wars like the Ukrainian Crisis. Therefore, the PLA invests heavily in air and helicopter assault capabilities to avoid possible minefields at Taiwan's beaches.
 
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