作者/Author(s): Jennifer Kavanagh and Jordan Cohen 

網站來源/Source: War on the Rocks 

日期/Date: 11/21/2023 

關鍵字/Keywords: 軍事、軍援 

 

摘要：

在美國軍援烏克蘭和以色列的同時，華盛頓可能沒有足夠的武器彈藥來軍援台灣及印太盟國，這可能降低嚇阻中國的能力。以色列和台灣的需求相似，所以華府真正需要做的是在兩者之間做出選擇。雖然以色列與哈馬斯的衝突可能會升級到包括真主黨和伊朗，但美國明確宣布中國的軍事威脅更值得關注，而台灣的軍事能力目前遠低於以色列。因此，美國應該對其對軍援以色列的行動設定上限，以保留在印太地區嚇阻中國所需的能力。 

  • 不同情況如何影響美國對印度太平洋的軍事援助 
  1. 如果以色列限制其在加薩的行動，美國可以在沒有太大問題的情況下為以色列、烏克蘭和台灣做好準備。 
  2. 如果真主黨捲入衝突，美國可能需要提供額外援助，這將對烏克蘭的援助造成巨大但可控的壓力。不過，以色列可能需要更多的防空和反艦能力，這與美國的印太盟國類似，會影響美國的供應。 
  3. 假設以色列必須在公開戰爭中面對伊朗，他們會需要大量的美國軍武支援，特別是長程打擊能力。在這種情況下，有可能會危及烏克蘭和美國印度太平洋的夥伴。 
  • 美國應該優先考慮在印度太平洋地區嚇阻中國，以避免災難性後果： ​​​​​​​
  1. 美國在台灣的戰略和經濟利益比中東更多。  
  2. 與真主黨或伊朗對以色列的軍事威脅相比，中國在印太地區的軍事威脅更大。
  3. 以色列擁有先進且足夠的自衛能力，但台灣的軍事能力卻遠遠不夠。 
  • 美國應如何回應以色列：
  1. ​​​​​​​美國應謹慎規劃對以色列的援助，使其足以用於自衛和擊敗哈馬斯。
  2. 美國應限制對以色列軍援，以維持印太地區嚇阻的能力。 
  3. 美國應逐步減少對以色列的緊急軍事援助。 
 
Summary: 
As the US is arming Ukraine and Israel to defeat their adversaries, Washington may not have enough weapons and munitions to arm Taiwan and its Indo-Pacific allies, which could make them underprepared to deter China. Since Israel and Taiwan have similar needs, the real tradeoff for Washington is choosing between them. Although the Israel-Hamas conflict may escalate to include Hezbollah and Iran, the US explicitly declared that the Chinese military threat is of greater interest, and Taiwan's current military capabilities are well below Israel's. Therefore, the US should set a limit on its military aid to Israel to preserve the capabilities required to deter China in the Indo-Pacific.  
  • How different scenarios affect US military aid to the Indo-Pacific ​​​​​​​
  1. If Israel limits its operations in Gaza, the US can prepare Israel, Ukraine, and Taiwan without much problem.  
  2. If Hezbollah enters the conflict, the US may need to provide extra assistance, putting a significant but manageable strain on Ukraine's aid. However, Israel may require more anti-air and anti-ship capabilities, which is similar to US Indo-Pacific allies, compromising supplies to the latter. 
  3. Suppose Israel has to face Iran in an open war. In that case, it will jeopardize both Ukraine and US Indo-Pacific partners because Israel may need most of the US weapons inventory, including long-range strike capabilities.  
  • The US should prioritize deterring China in the Indo-Pacific region to avoid catastrophic consequences: ​​​​​​​
  1. The US has a greater strategic and economic stake over the Middle East in Taiwan.  
  2. Chinese military threat in the Indo-Pacific region is greater compared to Hezbollah or Iran against Israel.  
  3. Israel has advanced and sufficient capabilities to defend itself, but Taiwan's military capabilities are substantially weaker and insufficient. ​​​​​​​
  • How the US should respond to Israel: ​​​​​​​
  1. The US should carefully plan its aid to Israel sufficient for self-defense and defeating Hamas. 
  2. The US should limit Israel from obtaining capabilities critical to Indo-Pacific deterrence. 
  3. The US should gradually reduce its emergency military aid to Israel. 
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