作者/Author(s): Brian C. Chao, Jahara Matisek, and William Reno 

網站來源/Source: War on the Rocks 

日期/Date: 12/18/2023 

關鍵字/Keywords: 國防、台美關係

摘要：

美國軍方官員預測，台灣最快可能會在 2025 年與中國發生軍事衝突，或者中國最早將在 2027 年完全有能力奪取台灣。 此外，大多數戰爭遊戲顯示，美國無法阻止中國軍隊的推進。因此，台灣、美國及其盟國應在中國的軍事能力實現之前，主動且積極的破壞中國軍力成長。雖然這個過程可能會激怒北京，但也可以提升台灣的韌性，增強台灣對兩岸對話的信心，並降低被中國脅迫投降的可能性。 

  • 美國可以與台灣建立一個安全援助集團，幫助台灣訓練軍隊，鞏固聯合部隊，並通過多國努力提升台灣的自衛能力，將台灣島變成「豪豬」，增加中國的入侵成本。為避免激怒中國，美國應僅派遣有限數量的軍事人員到台灣，並只專注於特定情景或能力培訓。 ​​​​​​​
  • 美國可以建立長期的「台灣專家顧問計畫」，讓美國人更了解台灣，促進美國保護自由開放印太地區的承諾，並幫助台灣軍隊進行各方面的作戰訓練。 
  • 美國可以投資台灣的民間社會發展和援助計畫，準備對抗中國的網路侵入和虛假資訊攻擊，或者培訓志願者對抗中國入侵軍隊。 
  • 美國可以幫助台灣建立彈性戰略供應儲備，並找出增加台灣自給自足性的潛在方法，才能在被中國入侵後支撐抵抗一陣子。除此之外，美國也應該要幫助台灣訓練後備軍隊，提高其軍事戰備能力，培養對抗中國軍隊的長期戰力。 
  • 美國可以通過「國家夥伴計畫」派駐國民警衛隊至台灣，促進警衛隊成員與台灣同行之間更好的關係。如果秘密進行交流，中國可能不會反對這項計畫。 

Summary: 
US military officials predict Taiwan will have a military conflict with China as soon as 2025, or China will have full capability to seize Taiwan in 2027 at the earliest. Further, most wargames indicate the US will fail to stop Chinese forces from advancing. Therefore, Taiwan, the US, and its allies should proactively disrupt China's military capabilities before they can materialize. Although some steps may be provocative to Beijing, they would boost Taiwan's resilience, make it more confident in cross-strait dialogue, and reduce its possibility of surrendering to Chinese coercion. 
  • The US could create a security assistance group with Taiwan by helping Taiwan train its military, consolidate joint forces, and make multinational efforts to upgrade Taiwan's self-defense capability and turn the island into a "porcupine," thus increasing the cost of invasion for China. To avoid provoking China, the US should only send a limited number of military personnel to Taiwan and train Taiwanese in specific scenarios or capabilities only. 
  • The US can establish a long-term Taiwan Hands Advisor Program to let Americans understand Taiwan better, promote the US commitment to protecting a free and open Indo-Pacific, and help train the Taiwanese military in all aspects of warfighting. 
  • The US can invest in Taiwan's civil society development and assistance programs to prepare the island against Chinese cyber intrusion and disinformation campaigns or train volunteers to resist Chinese invasion forces. 
  • The US can help Taiwan build resilient strategic supply reserves and identify potential means to increase Taiwan's self-sufficiency, as the island may need to resist Chinese invasion forces for some time. The US should also help Taiwan train its reservists to improve its military preparedness and sustain longer military operations against Chinese forces. 
  • The US can assign a National Guard Unit to Taiwan through the State Partnership Program to foster better relations between the Guard members and their peers in Taiwan. China will likely not object to the plan if the exchange is conducted secretly. 
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