作者/Author(s): Bonnie S. Glaser, Jessica Chen Weiss, and Thomas J. Christensen 

網站來源/Source: Foreign Affairs 

日期/Date: 11/30/2023 

關鍵字/Keywords: Deterrence
 

美國應該怎麼做？ 

• 美國應該考慮其對中國的威脅和保證的平衡。最重要的是要防止中國入侵台灣，同時讓北京方面期待兩岸問題有可能可以依靠和平解決。因此，美國應向中國保證美國會避免發表或採取使北京認為強迫統一是唯一選擇的言行。 
• 美國應堅持其「一個中國」政策，避免任何支持台灣主權的象徵性行動。 
• 華盛頓應該對「一個中國」政策及台灣對美國的重要性發表明確、全面且高層次的聲明。聲明中必須包括反對中國或台灣單方面改變兩岸現狀，不支持台灣獨立，並呼籲和平解決兩岸問題 
• 美國應鼓勵中國大陸和台灣恢復兩岸對話，以減少誤解、管控分歧。 
• 華盛頓應就其與台灣政府的「非官方關係」制定指導方針，限制高層訪問台灣，反之亦然。 
• 美國官員和國會應避免發表不符合《台灣關係法》的言論，例如幫助台灣加強國防的同時暗示台灣獨立。 

• 一些決策者和分析家將保證、姑息或屈服混為一談，但保證對於嚇阻至關重要。 
• 鑑於中國人民解放軍的現代化和中國日益強硬的態度，美國必須改善其在東亞的軍事態勢，加強與盟國的合作，並增強台灣對潛在軍事行動的防禦能力。然而，如果不能向中國提供可信的保證，就會降低統一協作的可能性，更難有效嚇阻中國。 

• The US should consider its mix of threats and assurances towards China. The key priority is to prevent China from attacking Taiwan while allowing Beijing to hope for a peaceful settlement of the cross-strait issue. Therefore, the US should assure China by avoiding statements or actions that make Beijing think forced unification is the only option.
• The US should stay consistent in its "one China" policy and avoid any symbolic actions that support Taiwan's sovereignty. 
• Washington should give a clear, comprehensive, and high-level statement regarding its stance on the "one-China" policy and the importance of Taiwan to the US. It must include statements opposing any unilateral changes to the cross-strait status quo by China or Taiwan, disregard any support for Taiwan's independence, and call for peaceful settlement of the cross-strait issue. 
• The US should encourage China and Taiwan to resume cross-strait dialogues to reduce misunderstandings and manage differences. 
• Washington should set guidelines on its "unofficial relationship" with the Taiwanese government, including restrictions on high-level visits to Taiwan and vice versa. 
• US officials and Congress should avoid making statements inconsistent with the Taiwan Relations Act that hint at Taiwan's independence while helping Taiwan bolster its defense. 

• Some policymakers and analysts confused assurances with appeasement or capitulation, but assurance is critical to deterrence. 
• Given the modernization of the PLA and China's increasing assertiveness, the US must improve its military posture in East Asia, increase cooperation with allies, and boost Taiwan's defense against potential military actions. However, the failure to provide China with credible assurance reduces the possibility of unified collaboration and will make China tougher to deter.