作者/Author(s): Bonnie S. Glaser, Jessica Chen Weiss, and Thomas J. Christensen
網站來源/Source: Foreign Affairs
日期/Date: November 30, 2023
關鍵字/Keywords: Deterrence
北京和台灣應該做甚麼?
- 中國曾威脅說，如果台灣宣布正式獨立或永久分裂，中國就會入侵台灣。然而，中國增加的軍事準備，會讓人們擔心北京正在從阻止台灣獨立，轉向強制兩岸統一。此舉削弱了台灣人對北京政治溫和派的信心，並給美國決策者一個提升美台關係的合理理由。
- 如果中國致力於兩岸和平統一，那麼應該要減少在台灣附近的行動，並明確承諾不會使用軍事手段統一台灣。這是向台灣保證，只要台灣不宣布獨立，和平是可以實現的。
- 除了加強軍事嚇阻外，台灣必須向北京保證，只要解放軍不入侵台灣，台灣就不會尋求獨立或永久分裂。台灣應該要避免採取暗示獨立的挑釁行為，並重申其根據中華民國憲法和九二共識管理兩岸事務的承諾。如果賴清德在2024年總統大選中獲勝，他應該像蔡英文任內一樣，堅持使用中華民國（台灣）來描述台灣，並考慮中止民進黨黨章中的獨立條款。
- 這樣做，台灣可以向北京承諾他們將會維持現狀，並給北京帶來和平統一的希望。北京政府也可以回報台灣的善意，減少兩岸緊張，提高政府間往來的信心。
What should Beijing and Taiwan do?
- China has threatened to invade Taiwan if it declares formal independence or a permanent partition. However, China's increased military preparation would instill fears that Beijing is deviating from deterring Taiwan's independence to forcing a reunification, diminish Taiwanese confidence in Beijing's political actors for future moderation efforts, and give US policymakers a legitimate reason to upgrade ties with Taiwan.
- If China is committed to a peaceful process, it should scale down its operations near Taiwan and clarify its commitment to not using military means to reunify Taiwan. It is to assure Taiwan that peace is attainable if Taiwan does not declare independence.
- Apart from increasing military deterrence, Taiwan must assure Beijing that it will not pursue independence or permanent separation as long as the PLA does not invade Taiwan. Taiwan should refrain from provocative actions hinting at a declaration of independence and reaffirm its commitment to managing cross-strait affairs according to the ROC's constitution and the 92 consensus. If Lai wins the 2024 Taiwan Presidential election, he should stick to using the Republic of China (Taiwan) to describe Taiwan as Tsai did during her tenure and consider suspending DPP's independence clause in the party's charter.
- By doing so, Taiwan could assure Beijing of its commitment to reinforce the status quo and give Beijing hope for a plausible peaceful unification. Beijing could also reciprocate Taiwan's goodwill to reduce tensions and improve inter-government confidence.