作者/Author(s): Bonnie S. Glaser, Jessica Chen Weiss, and Thomas J. Christensen 

網站來源/Source: Foreign Affairs 

日期/Date: November 30, 2023 

關鍵字/Keywords: Deterrence 

摘要：

中國快速增長的軍事力量和侵略性，讓台灣的嚇阻能力更具挑戰性。美國和台灣為加強 

島上的防禦能力，做了很多努力，展示了有效的軍事威脅。然而，只有當所有行為體都有不發動戰爭的真誠動機時，才能實現真正的嚇阻。目前，美國、中國和台灣都沒有做出足夠的保證。只有這三方相互做出可信的軍事回應威脅，或者外交政治上的保證，才能避免台海戰爭。 
威脅與保證 

  • 將有條件的保證與可信的軍事威脅結合，可以讓對手相信他們有更多的空間來避免受到懲罰。 
  • 北京、華盛頓和台北都有建立軍事準備和展示使用武力決心的動機。然而，三方都沒有向對方充分保證，軍隊的準備工作不會改變現狀，也不會排除最終和平解決台灣問題的可能性。 
  • 領導人在有限的敘事中互相保證，但同時又將軍事擴張合法化，以回應越來越強的威脅感，這可能會導致更多誤判。他們也沒有重申那些可以讓兩岸問題和平解決的關鍵宣言。 
疑慮和恐懼 
  • 可信的保證既不是獎勵也不是誘因，而是一種完全取決於目標行為威脅的保證。與建立信任措施不同，保證不需要互惠，但如果能夠得到互惠，就可以建立信任並緩和緊張局勢。 
  • 中國、美國和台灣必須知道，可信的保證對於有效嚇阻和維護台灣海峽的和平與穩定至關重要。
Summary: 
China's growing military might and aggression make Taiwan's deterrence more challenging. The US and Taiwan made substantial efforts to enhance the island's defense, showing credible military threats. Yet, deterrence will only be achievable when all actors give sincere assurances on the incentives of not going to war, which is currently insufficient from China, the US, and Taiwan. A war in the Taiwan Strait can only be prevented when China, the US, and China give credible threats of military response and political or diplomatic assurances to each other. 

Threat and Assurances 
  • Combining conditional assurances with credible military threats gives an adversary a choice to believe it has more room to maneuver and avoid punishment for restraining. 
  • Beijing, Washington, and Taipei have their motives to build military preparedness and show resolve in using force. However, all three actors do not assure each other enough that the army preparations will not change the status quo or rule out an eventual peaceful resolution to the Taiwan issue. 
  • The leaders assured each other in limited narratives. However, at the same time, they legitimized their military expansion as a response to the increased threat perception, which may lead to more miscalculations. They also did not reiterate key proclamations that would have made a peaceful resolution of the cross-strait issue possible.  
Doubts and Fears 
  • Credible assurance is neither a reward nor an inducement but a guarantee that a threat fully depends on the target's behavior. Unlike confidence-building measures, assurance does not require reciprocity, but if reciprocated, it could build trust and reduce tensions.  
  • China, the US, and Taiwan must recognize that credible assurance is critical for effective deterrence to preserve peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait. 
 
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