作者/Author(s): Audrey Kurth Cronin 

網站來源/Source: Foreign Affairs 

日期/Date: November 22, 2023 

關鍵字/Keywords: Irregular Warfare

摘要：
科技縮小了國家與非國家行為體之間的差距，讓後者有更多空間進行複雜的攻擊和宣傳，持續進行中的以哈衝突就是最好的例子。哈馬斯多次利用古老的地道戰術，襲擊以色列國防軍並劫持人質。哈馬斯與以色列的衝突表明，非國家行為體若掌握不對稱優勢，就能實現其作戰目標，讓自己更難被擊敗。 

「創造性毀滅」

  •  國家行為者並未主宰投射力量和宣傳的資源；因此，現代科技對非國家行為者的益處更大。  
  • 非國家行為者可以使用廉價、易用、易得的武器，並將其與新戰術和新技術相結合，攻擊更強大的對手。 
  • 現代資訊技術使非國家行為者能夠傳播他們的言論、宣傳他們的事業、招募新成員並散布虛假資訊。 
地道視野 
  • 非國家行為體可以用地道來運輸貨物、儲存補給和發動伏擊，從而獲得一些不對稱優勢。一名掌握地道布局的戰鬥人員可以輕鬆甩開數十名敵軍士兵，任其迷失在地道網路中。 
  • 地道也會限制士兵的作戰能力，他們的裝備可能無法在狹窄、孤立和黑暗的空間中很好地發揮作用。 
  • 雖然裝備精良的軍隊可以使用機器人在地道中作戰，但狹窄空間中的障礙物會使機器人失靈，反過來變成障礙物。 
  • 國家行為者可以使用炸彈摧毀地道，但這會造成平民傷亡，並招致更多的政治譴責、孤立和報復。 

 

向前邁進，不要退縮 

  • 在以色列應對戰場並孤立哈馬斯的情況下。，如果沒有進一步的援助，哈馬斯就無法維持針對以色列的行動。 
  • 以色列應阻止哈馬斯的政治動員，切斷其吸引注意力、招募新兵和結盟的能力。 
  • 以色列應阻止巴勒斯坦權力機構支持哈馬斯。 
  • 由於哈馬斯的目標是挑起以色列的過激反應，以色列可以透過戰略性但有節制的攻擊削弱哈馬斯的不對稱優勢。 
 
Summary: 
Technology narrows the gap between state and non-state actors, allowing the latter to conduct sophisticated attacks and spread propaganda, as in the current Hamas-Israel conflict. Hamas also utilized the ancient tactic of tunnels to strike the IDF and capture hostages. The Hamas-Israel war shows that non-state actors can obtain an asymmetric advantage over a stronger state actor and achieve their combat goals, making weaker non-state actors harder to defeat. 
 
Creative Destruction 
  • State actors do not dominate the resources required to project power and promote narratives; thus, technology now disproportionately benefits non-state actors.  
  • Non-state actors can use inexpensive, easy-to-use, and easily available weapons and combine them with new tactics and technologies to attack stronger adversaries. 
  • Modern information technology enables non-state actors to project their narratives, publicize their cause, recruit new members, and spread disinformation. 
Tunnel Vision 
  • Tunnels give non-state actors an asymmetric advantage by allowing fighters to transport goods, store supplies, and launch ambushes. A single combatant who can grasp the tunnel's layout can stop dozens of enemy soldiers easily lost in the tunnel networks. 
  • Tunnels also limit soldiers' combat ability, as their equipment may not work well in narrow, isolated, and dark spaces. 
  • Although well-equipped armies can use robots to fight in tunnels, obstacles in narrow spaces can disable robots, and they become part of the obstacle. 
  • State actors can use bombs to destroy the tunnels, but it will inflict civilian casualties and invoke further political condemnation, isolation, and retaliation. 
Moving Forward, Holding Back 
  • Without further assistance, Hamas cannot sustain its operation against Israel, especially when Israel coped with the battleground and isolated Hamas. 
  • Israel should also stop Hamas's political mobilization, i.e., sever its ability to attract attention, recruits, and allies. 
  • Israel should prevent the Palestinian Authority from supporting Hamas. 
  • Since Hamas's goal is to provoke Israel's overreaction, Israel can erode Hamas's asymmetric advantages with strategic but restrained attacks. 
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