作者/Author(s): Jude Blanchette and Bonnie Glaser 

網站來源/Source: War on the Rocks 

日期/Date: November 9, 2023 

關鍵字/Keywords: Gray-Zone Warfare, Deterrence
 

反擊中國的灰色地帶侵略 

  • 首先，台灣和西方國家必須明白，中國灰色地帶挑戰對現狀的危害，可能比中國採取入侵或封鎖更加立即且危險。如果中國的孤立和扼殺戰略效果良好，能讓台灣政府坐到談判桌前，阻止更正式的台灣獨立，那麼就沒必要選擇軍事手段。 
  • 台灣仍然需要「武裝到牙齒」，準備充足的物資來遏制入侵或封鎖行動。然而，台灣必須要有能力應對所有可能面臨的威脅，否則會破壞台灣的安全與繁榮。
  • 想要有效對抗灰色地帶侵略，台灣應該採取更積極的步驟： 
  1. 台灣應維持強大的海空軍，以攔截可能進入台灣防區內的解放軍飛機和船隻。雖然這可能無法阻止中國的入侵企圖，但能展現出台灣反對中國施壓手段的決心。
  2. 美國及其地區夥伴應在台海周邊的國際水域保持持續但鎮定的存在，以表達對台灣的支持。 
  3. 美國必須加強其在台灣海峽的海空活動與溝通策略，專注應對中國的好戰行為。 
  4. 中共不喜歡被公開羞辱，因此台灣和西方國家可以向世界接露北京的侵略行為，讓中國名譽掃地。
  5. 台灣、美國與其夥伴，應該加強台灣的電力和電信基礎設施，不然這些設施很容易遭到中國的網路攻擊和破壞。 
  6. 美國可以定期與台灣進行網路安全培訓演習，讓台灣可以用尖端技術保衛自己的網路空間。
  7. 台灣必須應對來自對岸和島內的假訊息傳播者，加強台灣民主，提升台灣人民對政府的信心。在選舉期間，更要阻止恐懼和恐慌的蔓延。
 
Summary: 
Countering Chinese "Gray Zone" Aggression 
  •  First, Taiwan and the West must understand that Chinese gray zone challenges pose more immediate and precarious dangers to the status quo than a possible invasion or blockade. If the Chinese isolation and strangulation strategy works well and will bring the Taiwanese government to the negotiation table or deter formal Taiwan's independence, it renders military options unnecessary. 
  • Taiwan still must arm itself to the teeth and prepare sufficient supplies to deter invasion or blockade operations. Yet, Taiwan must address the entire range of threats that the island faces, which Taiwan is already facing and may undermine Taiwan's security and prosperity. 
  • To counter gray-zone aggression effectively, Taiwan should take more aggressive steps: 
  1. Taiwan should maintain a capable air force and navy to scramble and intercept the PLA's planes and ships that operate within Taiwan's ADIZ. While it may not reduce China's incursion attempts, it will show Taiwan's resolve against Chinese pressure tactics. 
  2. The US and its regional partners should keep a constant but calm presence in international waters around Taiwan and the Taiwan Strait to signal solidarity with Taiwan. 
  3. The US and its regional partners should keep a constant but calm presence in international waters around Taiwan and the Taiwan Strait to signal solidarity with Taiwan. 
  4. Since the CCP does not like to be publicly shamed, Taiwan and the West can expose Beijing's aggression to the world to inflict reputational costs on China. 
  5. Taiwan, the US, and their partners should reinforce Taiwan's electrical and telecommunication infrastructure, which is prone to Chinese cyber attacks and sabotage. 
  6. The US can conduct frequent cyber security training exercises with Taiwan and allow Taiwan to use its leading technologies to defend Taiwan's cyberspace. 
  7. Taiwan must address Chinese disinformation that domestic and Chinese actors disseminate to reinforce Taiwan's democracy, boost Taiwanese confidence in its government, and stop the spread of fear and panic, especially during elections. 
 
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