作者/Author(s): Jude Blanchette and Bonnie Glaser
網站來源/Source: War on the Rocks
日期/Date: November 9, 2023
關鍵字/Keywords: Gray-Zone Warfare, Deterrence
摘要:
專家預測北京統一台灣最可能的情況是解放軍軍事入侵或封鎖。對比2022年8月裴洛西訪台後，解放軍在台海周邊活動增加的趨勢來看，這種推測可信度很高。雖說武裝台灣、阻止解放軍入侵或封鎖台灣非常重要，但美台雙方的決策者也要想辦法應對中國「灰色地帶」侵略。中國的灰色地帶侵略，旨在打擊台灣人士氣、孤立台灣、削弱美國保衛台灣的承諾與信譽，讓中國不用軍事入侵，就能直接統一台灣。除此之外，北京持續透過經濟脅迫和資訊戰實施「蠶食」戰術，為中國在未來戰略棋局中塑造優勢。如果台灣和美國不願意在低強度軍事衝突中與中國對抗，只會變相鼓勵中共咄咄逼人的做法。因此，要防止中國風我或入侵台灣，遏制中國的灰色地帶入侵勢在必行。
什麼是「灰色地帶」
- CSIS報告將灰色地帶定義為「介於常規國家戰略和公開戰爭之間的競爭場域」。國家行為體利用這個區域尋求槓桿影響力和利益，但又會避免引發公開戰爭。簡而言之，這一種國家行為體的政治策略，在避免引起對手報復的同時，獲取最大的經濟、軍事、外交或政治利益。
- 北京政府以來一直實行灰色地帶侵略，以對台灣人造成心理傷害，誘使台灣政府開始正式的統一談判。雖然在馬政府時期，灰色地帶侵略相對穩定。但自蔡政府執政後，中國持續用不同手段加強灰色地帶侵略行動。
- 以下是一些灰色地帶侵略策略
- 假訊息：中國持續抹黑美國捍衛台灣的承諾。 (疑美論).
- 經濟脅迫：中國通過貿易壁壘，多次威脅台灣農民和企業要取消ECFA。雖然這對台灣經濟影響有限，但可能會影響到2024年總統選舉的政治計算。
- 企圖孤立：台灣認為是中國船隻切斷了馬祖的網路連接。中國還在台灣附近的島嶼開採砂石。
- 其他可能手段：利用法律戰來伸張中國的領土主張；限制台灣企業進入大陸市場，以改變台灣企業的政治立場；對第三國施加外交壓力；將台灣孤立於國際組織或公共論壇之外。
Summary:
Experts predict the most common scenarios for Beijing to reunite Taiwan are a military invasion or a blockade by the PLA, which are highly credible after the PLA increased its activities around Taiwan after Pelosi's visit in August 2022. While it is essential to arm Taiwan in deterring invasion or blockade, Taiwanese and US policymakers must also address Chinese "gray-zone" aggression with aims to demoralize the Taiwanese, isolate Taiwan, and undermine the US's credibility in defending Taiwan, eventually allowing China to reunite Taiwan without an invasion. Further, Beijing's continuous and successful "salami-slicing" tactics through economic coercion and information warfare give China the edge in shaping the strategic landscape for future conflicts. If Taiwan and the US are reluctant to confront China at the lower end of the conflict spectrum, it will only encourage the CCP to be more aggressive. Therefore, deterring Chinese "gray-zone" warfare is imperative and is tied to preventing a blockade or an invasion.
What is "Gray-Zone"?
What is "Gray-Zone"?
- A CSIS report defines the gray zone as the "contested zone in between routine statecraft and open warfare," which state actors use to probe for leverage and benefits without crossing the boundary that leads to open war. In short, it is a political strategy that a state actor utilizes to gain economic, military, diplomatic, or political gains without evoking a costly and direct retaliation from its opponent.
- A CSIS report defines the gray zone as the "contested zone in between routine statecraft and open warfare," which state actors use to probe for leverage and benefits without crossing the boundary that leads to open war. In short, it is a political strategy that a state actor utilizes to gain economic, military, diplomatic, or political gains without evoking a costly and direct retaliation from its opponent.
- Some "gray-zone" tactics include:
- Disinformation: China casts seeds of doubt in Taiwanese about the US's commitment to defend Taiwan (疑美論).
- Economic coercion: China threatens Taiwanese farmers and businesses through trade barrier investigation and repeated hints of canceling the ECFA. While it has a marginal impact on Taiwan's economy, it can shape political calculation in the 2024 presidential election.
- Isolation attempt: Taiwan believed Chinese vessels were responsible for severing Matsu Island's internet access. China also conducted sand dredging operations near Taiwan islands.
- Other possible instruments: Legal warfare to normalize Chinese territorial claims, leverage or deny market access to change Taiwanese businesses' political standpoint, and diplomatic pressures on third countries to isolate Taiwan from international organizations or public forums.