作者/Author(s): Ryan Hass and Jude Blanchette 

網站來源/Source: Foreign Policy 

日期/Date: November 8, 2023 

關鍵字/Keywords: Deterrence, Defense, US-Taiwan Relations 
 

嚇阻戰略的外交層次 

• 比起單純依靠軍事力量，美國應該準備更全面的嚇阻方法。最重要的是，美國對台灣的支持要有明確和持續的信號。美國無意義的政治噱頭只會引起北京的憤怒，讓北京更加咄咄逼人。 
• 嚇阻的第二個支柱是美國的聯盟，特別是美國的印太與歐洲夥伴盟友。如果中國對台或對美的衝突升級，中小型國家可能無法起到決定性作用，但這些中小國家可以對中國施加外交和經濟壓力。換句話說，一個強大而團結的聯盟，對於台灣海峽的和平與穩定至關重要。 

1. 印太盟友對美國而言非常重要，這些國家可以為美國提供補給和維修援助。 
2. 然而，大多數美國盟友都很擔心中國的軍事行動，可能會導致這些國家被迫捲入衝突。因此這些國家在是否與美國和台灣結盟方面反覆猶疑。美國必須向其盟友掛保證，確保美中緊張局勢會降溫，維持和平。 
3. 中國不太會願意跟許多國家同時開戰。因此，一個強大的聯盟會讓中國政府對外決策更加困難複雜，達到嚇阻效果。 

• 美國的最終目標是避免戰爭，同時讓台灣發展成為一個民主國家，而不是與中國開戰。因此，美國必須在兩岸分歧問題上保持開方道路，一 方面向台灣領導人提供保證，一方面阻止台北有任何可能激怒北京的不必要行動。 
• 無論政府如何更迭，美國都必須堅守對台灣及其盟友的承諾。 
• 美國可以鼓勵中國降低其侵略性，並向北京保證其「一個中國政策」不會改變。除此之外，美國必須靈活地維持現狀，阻止北京或台北單方面改變現狀。

• The US should prepare a comprehensive approach to deterrence instead of relying solely on military power. The most important is a clear and persistent signal of US support for Taiwan. Unmeaningful political gimmicks from the US will only draw fury from Beijing and make it more aggressive. 
• The second pillar of deterrence is US alliances, especially with its Indo-Pacific and European partners. If China escalates conflict with Taiwan or the US, medium and small powers may not have decisive roles, but they can apply diplomatic and economic pressure on China. Therefore, a strong and united alliance is critical to maintaining peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait. ​​​​​​​

1. Indo-Pacific allies are important for the US because they can provide assistance to US forces for resupply and repairs. 
2. Yet, most US allies are worried about the possibility of a Chinese attack and dragged into the conflict, thus becoming hesitant in aligning further with the US and Taiwan. The US must assure its allies in cooling down US-China tensions and preserve peace. 
3. A strong alliance will complicate Beijing's decision-making as China is unwilling to fight a war with many countries. 

• The ultimate goal for the US is to avoid war while allowing Taiwan to develop as a democracy, not winning a war against China. Therefore, the US must keep a path open for China and Taiwan to resolve their differences, maintain regular assurances to Taiwan's leaders, and stop any unnecessary actions from Taipei that may infuriate Beijing. 
• The US must stay firm in its commitment to Taiwan and its allies, regardless of any administration change. 
• The US can incentivize China to lower its aggression and assure Beijing that its "one China" policy remains the same. At the same time, the US must be flexible in maintaining the status quo and stop any attempts from Beijing or Taipei to change the status quo. ​​​​​​​