作者/Author(s): Ryan Hass and Jude Blanchette 

網站來源/Source: Foreign Policy 

日期/Date: November 8, 2023 

關鍵字/Keywords: Deterrence, Defense, US-Taiwan Relations 

摘要：

雖然美國希望和平解決台灣問題，但他們似乎偏離了「一個中國政策」，與台北政府走得更近，促使中國更加咄咄逼人。一些美國決策者希望通過純粹的武力嚇阻中國，加強美國的防禦態勢，將台灣「武裝到牙齒」。雖然軍事力量對防止中國入侵台灣至關重要，但美國的嚇阻戰略也應加入外交手段，使其更加全面。 

軍事嚇阻的風險 

  • 雖然軍事嚇阻是華盛頓最喜歡的選項，但美國對直接軍事干預台海的政策，非常模稜兩可，並會根據不同的政府而變化。如果中國對美國保護台灣的承諾起疑，他們可能會改變自己的如意算盤。
  • 統一台灣是中共的核心目標之一。即使美國保持足夠的軍事能力和使用的信譽，它也只能延長台灣的和平與繁榮，並不能一勞永逸地解決台灣問題。 
  • 台灣一直都是美中關係間，一個非常棘手的問題，而且可能導致公開衝突。雖然美國在之前的對峙中成功地迫使中國政府讓步，但中共解放軍的力量已經壯大到可以削弱美國的軍事優勢。 
  • 目前，北京政府清楚了解入侵台灣的危險和成本。然而，如果政治影響力對中共的統治不利，或者台灣正式宣布獨立，習近平或他的繼任者可能選擇軍事升級。台灣人也了解這些風險，因此他們更願意維持現狀。 
 
Summary：
Although the US hopes for a peaceful resolution to the Taiwan issue, it seemingly diverges away from its "one China" policy and becomes closer to the Taipei government, prompting China to be more aggressive. Some US policymakers hope to deter China by sheer force, increasing US defense posture and arming Taiwan to the teeth. While military force is crucial in preventing a Chinese invasion of Taiwan, the US should be more comprehensive by including diplomacy in its deterrence strategy. 

The Risk of Military Deterrence 
  • Although military deterrence is the most favorable option for Washington, its policy on direct military intervention in the Taiwan Strait is ambiguous and changes according to different administrations. China will change its calculus if it doubts the US commitment to protect Taiwan. 
  • Even if the US preserves sufficient military capability and credibility of its use, it can only prolong Taiwan's peace and prosperity but not resolve the Taiwan issue once and for all, especially when reunification of Taiwan is a core CCP goal. 
  • Taiwan has long been a thorn in the US-China relationship, possibly leading to an open conflict. Although the US managed to push Beijing to step down in previous standoffs, the PLA has grown powerful such that it can undermine the US's military superiority. 
  • Currently, the Beijing government understands the dangers and costs of a Taiwan invasion. However, if the political clout is unfavorable for the CCP rule or Taiwan declares independence formally, Xi or his successors may choose military escalation. Taiwanese understood the risks, too, thus preferring to maintain the status quo. 
 
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