作者/Author(s): Angela Kockritz 

網站來源/Source: European Council on Foreign Relations 

日期/Date: August 8, 2023 

關鍵字/Keywords: Defense







  • 中國是台灣最重要的貿易夥伴,但台灣政府正在多元化其對外貿易和投資關係。
  • 基於中國對本土企業的支持和個人安全考量,在中國的台商正在陸續撤出中國。 
  • 中國試圖通過大規模的假訊息活動,在台灣和美國之間制造裂痕,來影響2024年台灣總統選舉。 
  • 考慮到台灣缺乏它國的外交承認,歐洲領袖應該要基於共同價值觀與利益,實際支持台灣。 
  • 歐洲可以加強與台灣的非軍事交流。
  • 歐洲應該幫助台灣重獲世界衛生大會觀察員席位,以維護台灣的國際地位 

"Ukraine Today, Taiwan Tomorrow" has been a motto in Taiwan since the Ukrainian Crisis began, prompting many Taiwanese to take private survival training courses. While a military invasion of Taiwan is possible, an amphibious landing operation is complex and demanding. Therefore, the Beijing government would prefer a peaceful unification and use hybrid tactics of international isolation, disinformation, and grey-zone warfare to diminish the Taiwanese resolution for retaliation. Taiwan and Ukraine are similar in facing a unification threat from a powerful autocratic regime and depend highly on the US and its allies for security. Ukraine's success in impeding Russia's operations gives a glimmer of hope for Taiwan to fend itself against a large aggressor. Thus, the Taiwanese government decided to improve its deterrence against invasion Beijing's hybrid threats. 

Military Deterrence 
  • The Soviet Union helped Kuomintang to develop its army in 1925, and some of the structure is present in the current Taiwanese military. After observing the lackluster performance of the Russian army, Taiwan decided to reform its military by extending conscription time, improving its training, and including civilian oversight of its military. 
  • Taiwan must prepare for a PLA blockade scenario that severs supplies of critical resources. Although Taiwan plans to expand its energy supply reservoir, environmental protests hampered the government's effort.
  • Beijing may isolate Taiwan digitally by cutting Taiwan's submarine cables. The Taiwanese government plans to install satellite receivers and diversify its internet providers to maintain the connection to the outside world. 
Economics and Politics 
  • China is Taiwan's most important trade partner, but the Taiwanese government is diversifying its trade and investment ties. 
  • China-based Taiwanese businesses are withdrawing from China or relocating outside China due to Beijing's increased support for local enterprises and personal safety concerns.
  • China is trying to influence the 2024 Taiwan Presidential Elections through massive disinformation campaigns and driving a wedge between Taiwan and the US. 
Supporting Taiwan
  • European leaders should support Taiwan practically based on shared values and interests, especially given Taiwan's lack of diplomatic recognition. 
  • Europe can enhance non-military exchanges with Taiwan. 
  • Europeans should help Taiwan preserve its international presence by assisting Taiwan to regain an observer seat in the World Health Assembly.