作者/Author(s): Angela Kockritz
網站來源/Source: European Council on Foreign Relations
日期/Date: August 8, 2023
關鍵字/Keywords: Defense
摘要：
「今日烏克蘭，明日台灣」是俄烏危機以來，台灣內部的常用語，這也促使許多台灣人自發性地參加私人生存訓練課程。雖然台灣可能面臨中國入侵，但兩棲登陸作戰的複雜性極高。因此，北京政府更傾向和平統一，利用國際孤立、假訊息和灰色地帶衝突等混合戰術，以削弱台灣人反擊的決心。台灣和烏克蘭共同之處在於，兩國皆面臨強大專制政權的統一威脅，同時也都高度依賴美國與盟友的安全保障。烏克蘭成功抵禦俄羅斯入侵的經驗，為台灣在學習對抗大型侵略者方面提供了一絲希望。因此，台灣政府決定加強對抗北京混和戰的嚇阻能力。
軍事嚇阻
經濟和政治
Summary:
軍事嚇阻
蘇聯曾在1925年幫助國民黨發展其軍隊，其中學還得一些結構仍存在於當前的台灣軍隊中。在觀察到俄羅斯軍隊的表現不佳後，台灣決定延長兵役時間、改進訓練，並引入民間監督，進行軍事改革。
台灣必須為關鍵資源被中共解放軍的封鎖等情境做好準備。雖然台灣計劃擴大其能源供應儲備，但政府一直面臨環保團體抗議的壓力。
基於北京政府可能切斷台灣的電纜以孤立台灣。因此台灣政府正計畫安裝衛星接收器，並試圖多元化其網路供應方式，以保持與外界的聯繫。
- 中國是台灣最重要的貿易夥伴，但台灣政府正在多元化其對外貿易和投資關係。
- 基於中國對本土企業的支持和個人安全考量，在中國的台商正在陸續撤出中國。
- 中國試圖通過大規模的假訊息活動，在台灣和美國之間制造裂痕，來影響2024年台灣總統選舉。
- 考慮到台灣缺乏它國的外交承認，歐洲領袖應該要基於共同價值觀與利益，實際支持台灣。
- 歐洲可以加強與台灣的非軍事交流。
- 歐洲應該幫助台灣重獲世界衛生大會觀察員席位，以維護台灣的國際地位。
Summary:
"Ukraine Today, Taiwan Tomorrow" has been a motto in Taiwan since the Ukrainian Crisis began, prompting many Taiwanese to take private survival training courses. While a military invasion of Taiwan is possible, an amphibious landing operation is complex and demanding. Therefore, the Beijing government would prefer a peaceful unification and use hybrid tactics of international isolation, disinformation, and grey-zone warfare to diminish the Taiwanese resolution for retaliation. Taiwan and Ukraine are similar in facing a unification threat from a powerful autocratic regime and depend highly on the US and its allies for security. Ukraine's success in impeding Russia's operations gives a glimmer of hope for Taiwan to fend itself against a large aggressor. Thus, the Taiwanese government decided to improve its deterrence against invasion Beijing's hybrid threats.
Military Deterrence
Military Deterrence
- The Soviet Union helped Kuomintang to develop its army in 1925, and some of the structure is present in the current Taiwanese military. After observing the lackluster performance of the Russian army, Taiwan decided to reform its military by extending conscription time, improving its training, and including civilian oversight of its military.
- Taiwan must prepare for a PLA blockade scenario that severs supplies of critical resources. Although Taiwan plans to expand its energy supply reservoir, environmental protests hampered the government's effort.
- Beijing may isolate Taiwan digitally by cutting Taiwan's submarine cables. The Taiwanese government plans to install satellite receivers and diversify its internet providers to maintain the connection to the outside world.
- China is Taiwan's most important trade partner, but the Taiwanese government is diversifying its trade and investment ties.
- China-based Taiwanese businesses are withdrawing from China or relocating outside China due to Beijing's increased support for local enterprises and personal safety concerns.
- China is trying to influence the 2024 Taiwan Presidential Elections through massive disinformation campaigns and driving a wedge between Taiwan and the US.
- European leaders should support Taiwan practically based on shared values and interests, especially given Taiwan's lack of diplomatic recognition.
- Europe can enhance non-military exchanges with Taiwan.
- Europeans should help Taiwan preserve its international presence by assisting Taiwan to regain an observer seat in the World Health Assembly.