*Förge

作者/Author(s): Julian Spencer-Churchill 

網站來源/Source: The Forge 

日期/Date: May 25, 2022 

關鍵字/Keywords: Deterrence, Defense 

摘要：

中國正在密切觀察西方對俄羅斯入侵烏克蘭的反應，以便為最終武力統一台灣制定對策。西方不一致的反應暴露了中國入侵或封鎖台灣時的弱點。

五個教訓 

  • 除非受到直接威脅，否則民主國家的動員速度會很慢。國際法學家通常無法防止戰爭，他們對危險的反通常比較應遲緩，偶爾也會受到盟友或潛在夥伴之間意識形態和利益分歧等阻礙。 
  • 民主國家會優先考慮紓解經濟衝擊和地方衝突，而不是保衛另一個民主國家。一些歐洲國家在俄烏戰爭初期，忌憚於自身對俄羅斯的能源依賴，而不願加入美國的制裁計畫。如果中國入侵台灣，與中國有密切經濟和投資關係的國家可能會選擇保持中立。 
  • 西方媒體和公眾常常批評專制領袖的心理狀態、精神狀態和行為。然而，進行對不同獨裁者的人格分析的學術研究人員顯示，這些領袖大多高智商高情商，幾乎沒有精神疾病的跡象。 
  • 侵略者會利用對手群眾的政治和意識形態裂縫。   
  • 民主國家害怕核戰爭，不敢使用核武器。因此，如果出現核危機，國家行為者很可能通過平衡彼此的利益來解決爭端。 
對台灣嚇阻戰略的影響 
  • 西方民主國家應向台灣部署空中與地面部隊，以消除來自中國的核威脅。
  • 西方應準備一份可能對中國實施的、可信的經濟制裁清單，讓北京認識入侵台灣的後果。 
  • 民主國家必須明確向台灣政府傳達，只有在台灣人展現強烈的意願和努力保護自己時，他們才會捍衛台灣。 
 
Summary: 
China is closely observing how the West will react to the Russian invasion of Ukraine to devise countermeasures for its eventual forced unification of Taiwan. The West's inconsistent responses have revealed weaknesses in the event of a Chinese invasion or blockade of Taiwan. 

Five Lessons 
  • Unless under direct threat, democracies will mobilize slowly. International legalists usually failed to prevent war because they responded to the dangers in a delayed manner or were hampered by ideological and interest differences among allies or potential partners. 
  • Democracies will prioritize mitigating economic shocks and local conflicts over defending another democracy. Some European countries were reluctant to join the US sanction programs in the early stages of the war due to energy dependence on Russia. Countries with close economic and investment ties with China will likely stay neutral if China attacks Taiwan. 
  • Western media and the public often criticize the mental state, psychopathy, and behavior of authoritarian leaders. Yet, academic researchers who did personality profiles on different dictators showed that these leaders have high intelligence and emotional quotients and little evidence of mental illness. 
  • Aggressors will manipulate political and ideological cracks in the communities of their adversaries.  
  • Democracies fear nuclear war and would not dare to use nuclear weapons. Therefore, if nuclear brinkmanship occurs, state actors would likely settle disputes by balancing each others' interests. 
Implications for Taiwan's Deterrence 
  • Western democracies should deploy land and air forces into Taiwan to neutralize nuclear threats from China. 
  • The West should prepare a list of possible and credible economic sanctions on China to let Beijing realize the implications of a Taiwan invasion. 
  • Democracies must clearly communicate to the Taiwan government that they will only defend Taiwan if the Taiwanese show a strong will and effort to protect themselves. 
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