作者/Author(s): John K. Culver and Sarah Kirchberger 

網站來源/Source: Atlantic Council 

日期/Date: June 15, 2023 

關鍵字/Keywords: Deterrence 
 

雙方對遏制戰略學到的教訓有所矛盾 

• 對美國來說，有關中國的這些教訓，最終導致了一種遏制陷阱。 

1. 如果美國堅信中國將在未來幾年內奪回台灣，美國就會強迫台灣做好準備，削弱其在安全援助方面的自我約束，踩踏中國的紅線。
2. 另一方面，中國通過對台軍事演習，或具有戰爭意圖的挑釁行動，不斷變更其衝突紅線。 ​​​​​​​

• 美國和台灣必須避免加劇兩岸緊張局勢，維持穩定現狀。 
• 西方必須向對手發出強烈信號，更果斷地防止兩岸衝突的發生。 

• 美國及其盟國必須迅速分析，理解遏止在烏克蘭失敗的原因。 
• 中國極有可能使用非動能軍事行動征服台灣，這是西方難以解決的問題。 
• 制定方法以應對中國對台資訊戰。 
• 打擊中國和俄羅斯針對全球南方國家的「反殖民」和「反霸權」論述。 
• 西方不應對輕易就能夠瓦解中俄關係抱有太多期望。 
• 西方應共享情報以加強可信度和團結。 
• 歐洲盟國可為全球安全做出重大貢獻。因此，美國應盡可能解決他們的擔憂。 

• The lessons for the US are conflicting for China, resulting in a deterrence trap. ​​​​​​​

1. If the US strongly believes China will retake Taiwan in the next few years, the US will press Taiwan to prepare better, eroding its self-imposed restraints on security assistance and stepping on China's red lines. 
2. On the other hand, China kept changing its red lines by conducting military drills or provocative actions short of war on Taiwan. 

• The US and Taiwan must preserve a stable status quo without increasing cross-strait tension. 
• The West must send strong signals to adversaries and be more decisive to avert cross-strait conflict. 

• The US and its allies must quickly analyze and understand why deterrence failed in Ukraine. 
• China will most likely use non-kinetic means to conquer Taiwan, which is difficult to address for the West. 
• Formulate ways to counter Chinese information warfare over Taiwan. 
• Counter Chinese and Russian "anti-colonial" and "anti-hegemonial" narratives targetting global south countries. 
• The West should not expect to fracture Sino-Russian ties easily. 
• The West should share intelligence to bolster credibility and unity. 
• European allies can contribute significantly to global security. Therefore, the US should address their concerns as much as possible.