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作者/Author(s): Jacob Maywald, Benjamin Hazen, Edward Salo, and Michael Hugos 

網站來源/Source: War on the Rocks 

日期/Date: August 21, 2023 

關鍵字/Keywords: Defense, Logistics
 

聯合封鎖行動 

  • 目標: 在不登陸台灣的情況下,最大限度削弱台灣的意志和作戰潛力。這將增加中國的談判地位和衝突升級。
  • 解放軍必須部署大規模艦隊,以實現這次行動的目標,這將對後勤需求提出高要求。解放軍可以通過其大量庫存和友好鄰國的支援來應對短期供應不足。 
  • 如果台灣能夠打擊中國的海港、補給倉庫和維修基地,就可以干擾中國維持解放軍海軍的中長期作戰能力。 
  • 封鎖行動可以對台灣的軍事和經濟機構施加壓力,但如果中國無法迅速實現其目標,將面臨更高的失敗風險。此外,如果台灣能夠干擾解放軍海軍的補給和維護,中國的後勤也會面臨風險。 

 

聯合登陸行動 

  • 目標: 全面攻擊台灣,造成既成事實,限制可能的軍事干預選擇。
  • 此種作法對中國來說是最冒險的,因為台灣的防禦緊湊、交疊且強大,其部隊也會堅決抵抗。 
  • 水陸兩棲登入的人員折損率很高。
  • 雖然解放軍可以依賴民用船隻運輸部隊、陸地車輛和物資,但其中一些船隻並未達到軍事規格,使用它們可能會干擾民間活動,損害中國的貿易和經濟。 
  • 即使解放軍能夠成功登陸,台灣也有很多方法阻止其前進: 
  1. 鐵路網路很容易就能破壞,且很難修復。台灣的鐵路系統適合繞行周邊,不適合向內部前進。 
  2. 台灣的道路狹窄,解放軍的部隊很容易被攔截和狙擊。
  • ​​​​​​​合登陸行動是整個作戰過程中最決定性,但也最複雜和最危險。解放軍可能擁有足夠的兩岸後勤手段,但無法確保安全登陸,登陸後或將面臨台灣擁擠道路造成的阻礙。 
 
Summary: 
Joint Blockade Campaign 
  • Objective: Degrade Taiwan's will and combat potential through maximum pressure without landing on Taiwan. It will increase China's position for negotiation and conflict escalation. 
  • The PLA must deploy a vast fleet that requires high logistical demand to achieve the campaign's objective. The PLA may address short-term supply deficits with its large inventory and support from friendly neighboring countries. 
  • If Taiwan can strike Chinese seaports, supply storages, and maintenance depots, it can impede China's ability to sustain the PLA Navy's medium- and long-term operational capabilities.
  • A blockade campaign can pressure the Taiwanese military and economic institutions but will have a higher risk of failure if China cannot achieve its objectives quickly. Further, a blockade will be logistically risky if Taiwan can disrupt the PLA Navy's supplies and maintenance.
Joint Island Landing Campaign 
  • Objective: Full-scale attack on Taiwan to create afait accompliand limit potential options for military intervention. 
  • This campaign will be the riskiest for China as Taiwan's defense is more condensed, overlapping, and robust, and its forces will resist fiercely. 
  • Amphibious landing would incur high attrition rates.
  • Although the PLA can rely on civilian ships to transport troops, land vehicles, and supplies, some of the vessels do not meet military specifications, and using them may disrupt civilian activity, harming Chinese trade and economy. 
  • Even if the PLA can secure a landing, Taiwan has multiple ways to stop its advance:
  1. ​​​​​​​Railway networks are risky to sabotage and are difficult to maintain and repair. The networks are good for circling Taiwan but not ideal for inward advance. 
  2. Taiwanese roads are narrow. The PLA's forces can be easily intercepted and blocked. ​​​​​​​
  • Although a joint island landing campaign is the most decisive, it is the most complex and riskiest. The PLA may have enough cross-strait logistical means, but it may not secure safe landings or will meet resistance due to the congested roads in Taiwan.