--1 그

作者/Author(s): Jacob Maywald, Benjamin Hazen, Edward Salo, and Michael Hugos 

網站來源/Source: War on the Rocks 

日期/Date: August 21, 2023 

關鍵字/Keywords: Defense, Logistics 

摘要：

在進攻台灣期間，中國運輸軍隊和物資的能力至關重要。雖然我們對此了解的太少，但在戰役期間攔截解放軍的後勤保障非常重要。解放軍主要採用三種方式運補，每種情景都有美國和臺灣可以探索和利用的後勤漏洞。

聯合火力打擊戰役 

  • 目標： 製造僵局，但要有足夠的威懾力迫使台灣統一。
  • 解放軍將動員常規彈道飛彈和巡航飛彈平臺打擊臺灣的關鍵基礎設施或癱瘓其政治、軍事和經濟體系。希望能有效削弱台灣的戰鬥意志。 
  • 對解放軍來說，成功的關鍵在於台灣是否很快會投降，或削弱台灣反擊解放軍兩岸入侵的能力。如果解放軍不能迅速取得決定性的勝利，台灣的國際夥伴將爭取到時間組織對中國的報復行動，迫使中國在多條戰線上作戰。 
  • 中國大陸對台轟炸行動幾乎都從其境內發起，而且中國國內的運輸系統非常強大，因此要從後勤攔截飛彈機會很小，效果不彰。台灣充其量只能打擊中國海岸線附近的後勤運輸。 
  • 但是，如果戰役延長，中國對作戰物資、零件以及彈藥的負擔將會越來越沉重。 
  • 聯合火力打擊戰役對中國的風險最小，但效果不如其他作法有用。雖然臺灣及其盟國打擊中國後勤的能力很有限，但它們可以盡可能延長戰役時間，逼迫中國爆露自身的後勤弱點。
Summary：
China's ability to transport its troops and supplies is critical during an attack on Taiwan. Despite being understudied, interdicting the PLA's logistics during the campaign is important. There are three scenarios that the PLA would employ, and each of these scenarios has logistic vulnerabilities that the US and Taiwan can explore and exploit. 
 
Joint Firepower Strike Campaign 
  • Objective: Create a stalemate but coercive enough to force reunification.  
  • The PLA would mobilize conventional ballistic and cruise missile platforms to Strike critical targets in Taiwan or paralyze its political, military, and economic systems. The final aim is to degrade Taiwan's will to fight through proper target selection and weapon employment. 
  • The keys to success for the PLA were the quick surrender of Taiwan or diminishing Taiwan's ability to counter the PLA's cross-strait invasion. If the PLA fails to score a swift and decisive win, Taiwan's international partners would have enough time to organize a retaliatory campaign against China, forcing China to fight a war on multiple fronts. 
  • Since the bombardment campaign will be initiated within mainland China's borders, the chances for logistics interdiction are slim and ineffective, especially since China's domestic transport system is robust. At best, Taiwan could strike logistics near Chinese shorelines without disrupting transports from inland. 
  • However, if the campaign is prolonged, it will increase the Chinese logistics burden due to increased demand for supplies, parts, and ammunition.
  • A joint firepower strike campaign will incur minimum risk for China but will be less effective than other campaigns. Although Taiwan and its allies have restricted options for logistics interdiction, they can expose China's logistics vulnerability by surviving as long as possible and prolonging the campaign.
回上層