作者/Author(s): Sam Greene
網站來源/Source: Foreign Affairs
日期/Date: 09/22/2023
關鍵字/Keywords: Defense, Deterrence, Strategy
沒有明確的威懾力（接續前篇）
- 目前，各國援助烏克蘭的方法，並不是幫助烏克蘭獲得全面勝利，而是設法造成俄羅斯的戰略挫敗。然而，俄羅斯在損失慘重的情況下仍堅持戰鬥，而烏克蘭仍處於戰爭狀態。這表明，西方各國假設俄羅斯領導人關心國家利益，害怕國家利益被損害之看法是行不通的，雙方的行動存在不同邏輯。
- 最後，西方學者無法前往俄羅斯進行研究，導致西方分析家無法理解克里姆林宮決策的成本效益分析。這也導致西方對俄羅斯的反應很有限，甚至無效。
仍有積極展望的空間
- 雖然西方無法影響俄羅斯的決策，但他們可以繼續加強對烏克蘭的支援，並重新奪回失去的領土。
- 西方無法阻止俄羅斯的轟炸行動，但可以加強烏克蘭的防空力量，阻止俄羅斯導彈和無人機的攻擊。此舉無法控制俄羅斯的入侵行動，但能夠保證烏克蘭人的生命安全。
- 各國對烏克蘭的安全保障，應著重在增強其軍事影響力。制裁行動則須側重於阻礙俄羅斯的戰爭努力，而非造成俄羅斯的政治變革。西方也應該幫助烏克蘭重建並增強其防禦能力。
- 烏克蘭危機已過去 18 個多月，西方分析家掌握了充足的資訊，可以制定更好的作戰計劃，重振烏克蘭經濟。他們還知道如何削弱俄羅斯的財政作戰能力。分析家們只需調整政策建議，讓這些作法更加有效。
- 目前，西方各國對俄羅斯國內事件的了解還很有限，但各國分析家正在努力縮小資訊不對稱的差距。在那之前，西方應更聚焦於他們對俄羅斯的了解與知識，而不是那些他們根本不了解的情況。
No Clear Deterrence (Continued)
- Current approaches for aiding Ukraine lie in inflicting a Russian strategic defeat instead of a complete Ukrainian victory. However, Russia kept fighting despite heavy losses while Ukraine was still at war. It indicated that the assumption of impairing national interest that Russian leaders cared about does not work, and there are different logics in action.
- In the end, Western analysts cannot understand the cost-benefit analysis of the Kremlin's decision-making due to the inability of Western scholars to travel to Russia and conduct research. It makes responses to Russia limited or ineffective.
There are still positive outlooks.
- While the West cannot influence Russia's decision-making, they can continue strengthening Ukraine and retaking lost territories.
- The West cannot stop Russia's bombing runs, but they can bolster Ukraine's air defenses to stop Russian missiles and drones from attacking. It will not control Russia's bloodlust but will keep Ukrainians alive.
- The security guarantees for Ukraine should emphasize increasing its military impact. The sanctions campaign should focus on hampering Russia's war efforts, not inflicting political change in Russia. The West should also help Ukraine to rebuild and increase its resilience.
- More than 18 months into the Ukrainian Crisis, Western analysts have sufficient information to devise better war plans and reinvigorate Ukraine's economy. They also know how to weaken Russia's financial capacity for warfighting. The analysts only need to adjust their policy recommendations to make the instruments more effective.
- For now, the understanding of the events within Russia is limited, but the knowledge gap will be decreased. Before the gap is narrowed, Western policies should focus on their current understanding of Russia than those they don't.