作者/Author(s): Sam Greene 

網站來源/Source: Foreign Affairs 

日期/Date: 09/22/2023 

關鍵字/Keywords: Defense, Deterrence, Strategy

摘要：

 西方分析師難以理解俄羅斯在烏克蘭危機中的行為，也難以幫助他們的政府制定適當的回應。西方對普里戈津的謀殺的模糊且矛盾的觀察表明，雖然他們擁有龐大的情報網路，但他們並未清楚理解當前的俄羅斯政治。分析人員在沒有適當資訊的情況下無法做出可靠的分析，導致政策無法快速制定決策。在當前形勢下，西方國家應集中精力幫助烏克蘭，而不是試圖改變俄羅斯的如意算盤。

情報收集失敗 

  • 西方分析師認為，孤立俄羅斯精英，剝奪他們在西方的財富，將削弱對普京的政治支持。此外，他們認為，一旦人們知道俄羅斯士兵的死亡人數，將會有發起大規模的反普丁政權抗議活動。西方還對俄羅斯少數民族進行投資，煽動分裂運動，製造內部分裂。然而，制裁和俄羅斯士兵的死亡並沒有削弱普丁的政治權力和支持率，而少數民族的抗議活動卻逐漸平息。
  • 西方分析家在發現現實情況並不如其預測時，有些手足無措。他們無法確定俄羅斯對核升級的威脅是現實還是一種分散注意力的手段。 
  • 只要研究人員無法進入俄羅斯進行深入的現地研究或採取新方法，他們對俄羅斯的分析就永遠不會完整或準確。
 
沒有明確的威懾力 
  • 然而，除了分析俄羅斯的決定之外，為烏克蘭提供一些武器也有其他原因。美國提供了烏克蘭要求的大部分武器，但其提供的速度比較慢。緩慢提供武器的背後原因，是美國擔憂俄烏衝突若突然升級，會逼得俄羅斯使用核武器，才出此權宜之計。然而，從俄羅斯方面來看，這更像是一種「已升級作為威脅，來逼迫戰局降級」的作法，以震懾對手使其屈服。 
  • 西方的經濟制裁成功地限制了俄羅斯的作戰能力，但並不影響俄羅斯財閥與寡頭對普丁的態度。 
Summary：
Western analysts struggle to comprehend Russia's behavior in the Ukrainian Crisis and help their governments formulate suitable responses. The murky and contradicting observation of Prigozhin's murder indicates the West did not grasp current Russian politics clearly despite their vast intelligence networks. Analysts cannot formulate reliable analyses without proper information, which impedes policymaking. Under current circumstances, the West should focus on helping Ukraine rather than trying to change Russia's calculus.

The Failure of Intelligence Gathering 
  • Western analysts believe isolating Russian elites from their wealth in the West would weaken political support for Putin. Further, they regard there will be widespread protest against Putin's regime upon knowing the death toll of Russian soldiers. The West also invested in Russian ethnic minorities to stir secession campaigns, creating internal divisions. However, the sanctions and Russian soldier deaths did not reduce Putin's political power or support, while the ethnic-minorities protests fizzled out. 
  • The contradiction between prediction and reality confuses Western analysts. Further, they cannot determine whether Russian threats of nuclear escalation will be a reality or just a distraction. 
  • As long as the researchers cannot enter Russian soil for in-depth field research or adopt new approaches, their analysis of Russia will never be complete or accurate.
No Clear Deterrence 
  • Yet, some weapons provision for Ukraine lies in something other than analyzing Russia's decisions. The US provided most weapons that Ukraine asked for, amid at a slower pace. The slow pace is due to worries of conflict escalation that will lead to Russian use of nuclear weapons. However, from the Russian side, it was more of an "escalating to de-escalate" strategy to shock an opponent into submission.
  • Western economic sanctions succeeded in limiting Russian warfighting capability but did not include opposition of Russian kleptocrats on Putin. 
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