FALL 2023 The Alliances That Matter Now Multilateralism is at a dead end, but powerful blocs are getting things done. PLUS: GORDON BROWN'S PROPOSAL TO FIX INTERNATIONAL INSTITUTIONS

作者/Author(s): Franz-Stefan Gady 

網站來源/Source: Foreign Affairs 

日期/Date: August 4, 2023 

關鍵字/Keywords: Defense, Military Technology 


摘要：
起初，西方國家不願向烏克蘭提供那些「可以改變遊戲規則」的現代武器，如精準打擊飛彈，但隨著俄烏危機持續延燒，他們最終還是妥協了。烏克蘭有效地利用這些武器限制俄羅斯的進攻，解放那些曾被佔領的領土。 然而，當戰事進入消耗階段，「改變遊戲規則」武器的敘事是具有誤導性的，這可能會對烏克蘭造成傷害。
 

「改變遊戲規則」敘事的危險性

  • 烏克蘭可能會與西方國家出現外交和軍事摩擦，削弱西方的持續支持。 
  1. 現代武器的有限效果可能會使烏克蘭人失望，引發分歧。
  2. 烏克蘭人可能會指責西方國家供應武器不夠快或不夠充分。 
  3. 因此，西方可能會認為烏克蘭人忘恩負義。 
  • 過去，美軍的「空地作戰」理論獲得巨大的成功，長程飛彈很容易被冠上「遊戲規則改變者」的神話。 許多評論員認為烏克蘭人也可以使用類似的戰術。 
  • 然而，這些飛彈的實際作用有限。 
  1. 烏克蘭本身就已經擁有大量的長程飛彈，但西方國家對這些飛彈都有使用上的範圍限制，所以額外提供烏克蘭飛彈，最多就只能補充其庫存，無法實質地提升烏克蘭作戰能力。 
  2. 要進行陸上縱深作戰，需要擁有更強大的監控與偵查能力，才能夠識別和追蹤目標。俄羅斯的反制措施很有效，可以阻止烏克蘭獲取準確情報。 
  3. 自烏克蘭在戰場引入「海馬斯」高機動性多管火箭系統（HIMARS）後，俄羅斯已經快速地進行了調整，包含加強指揮中心，使其供應網絡更加多元化，避免彈藥庫太容易受到攻擊。 
  4. 雖然俄羅斯的後勤壓力越來越大，但其部隊仍然可以進行反攻，自衛，並持續炮火轟炸。 
  • ​​​​​​​總之，雖然烏克蘭需要更現代化的武器，但它必須認識到這些武器的實用性和局限性，避免與西方盟友產生失望和不和。
 
Summary：

Initially, the West was reluctant to supply modern weaponry deemed "game-changing," such as precision strike missiles to Ukraine, but they gave in eventually as the Ukrainian Crisis dragged on. Ukraine utilized these weapons effectively to restrict Russian advances and liberate captured territories. However, as the war entered the attrition stage, the narrative of "game-changing" weapons was misleading, which could harm Ukraine. 

 

The Dangers of "Game-Changing" Narrative 

  • Ukraine may have diplomatic and military friction with its Western counterparts, undermining the West's continuous support.
  1. ​​​​​​​The limited effects of modern weaponry may disappoint Ukrainians, leading to discord. 
  2. Ukrainians may accuse the West of not supplying the weapons fast enough or sufficiently. 
  3. Consequently, the West may feel the Ukrainians were ungrateful. 
  • Long-range missiles are prone to the game-changer narratives due to the mythical U.S. military's AirLand Battle doctrine that was successful in previous operations. Many commentators felt Ukrainians could utilize similar tactics. 
  • However, these missiles have limited impact on the battlefield. ​​​​​​​
  1. Ukraine already has plenty of long-range missiles. Additional missiles will only replenish its inventory without adding significant capabilities due to usage range limitations by the Western governments. 
  2. The deep battle campaign requires better surveillance and reconnaissance capabilities to identify and track targets. Russia has effective countermeasures that could prevent Ukraine from obtaining accurate intelligence. 
  3. Russia has adapted since Ukraine introduced HIMARS to the battlefield. It has hardened its command centers, diversified its supply networks, and made its ammunition depots less vulnerable. 
  4. Although the Russian logistics are under increasing pressure, its forces can still counterattack, defend themselves, and keep up a constant artillery barrage. 
  • In short, although Ukraine needs more modern weapons, it must recognize its realistic uses and limitations to avoid disappointment and discord with its Western partners. 
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