作者/Author(s): Hal Brands 

網站來源/Source: Foreign Policy 

日期/Date: 09/08/2023 

關鍵字/Keywords: Deterrence, Defense
 

 

嚇阻中國入侵台灣 

  • 從地圖上來看，中國比美國更接近台灣，具有地理優勢。然而，中國最大的劣勢在於，要完全控制是最難的，尤其是中國要完全掌握台灣的話必定要涉及兩棲作戰問題，中國雖然可以使用封鎖或者轟炸戰術，但其不能保證這麼做，台灣人就會投降。習近平希望確保進攻作為能收獲成功，否則失敗的行動可能會導致其政權滅亡。因此，美國及其盟國可以增加習近平採取行動的風險，讓他發動入侵行動的成本變得很高。 
  • 美國應同時採取「拒止性嚇阻」和「懲罰性嚇阻」兩種方式，這將使中國付出高昂的代價，但成功的機率卻很低。要有效威懾中國必須要有以下作為：  
  1. 台灣必須要有嚴密防禦和不屈不撓的頑強精神，才能使中國無法輕易取得快速勝利  
  2. 一支能夠擊敗中國入侵艦隊或迫使其撤退的美國軍隊。 
  3. 一個可以加強拒止行動，同時增加中國行動成本，或迫使中國只能擴大戰爭規模的聯盟。  
  4. 一場各國聯合實施的經濟反制戰略，無論戰爭結果如何，都將摧毀中國的經濟和政治體系。 
  5. 有足夠的信譽能夠在西太平洋發動核戰爭。 
  • 雖然美國及其合作夥伴在嚇阻中國方面取得了真正的歷史性進展，但它們仍處於起步階段。 
美國嚇阻戰略的阿基里斯腱 
  • 台灣是目前美國嚇阻戰略中最薄弱但最關鍵的因素。雖然美國正在努力增強台灣的非對稱防禦能力，以延緩或者擊敗中共入侵部隊，但整體的建設進度很緩慢。
  • 台灣國內的政治挑戰和美國軍工產業堆積的問題，也可能會加強台灣的嚇阻準備和自衛能力，使北京攻擊台灣的引力更大。 
  • 雖然美國正在投資推動軍事現代化和擴充軍武庫，但這些行動需要一些時間完成，甚至可能要到 2030 年才能實現。 
  • 隨著解放軍的改革取得成效，美國目前的軍事庫存和平台正在逐步老化，導致美國針對中國的能力出現缺口。 
Deterring a Taiwan Invasion 
  • From the map, China enjoys a proximity advantage over the US. However, China's largest disadvantage is that control is harder than denial, especially when it involves amphibious operations. China may use blockade or bombardment tactics, but it cannot guarantee that the Taiwanese will surrender. Xi would want to ensure an attack will succeed as failure would ruin his regime. Therefore, the US and its allies can increase the risks for Xi such that he will think twice before commencing an attack. 
  • The US should incorporate both "deterrence by denial" and "deterrence by punishment," which would incur high costs with a low probability of success for China. To deter China effectively: 
  1. ​​​​​​​A Taiwan armed with prickling defenses and unyielding tenacity that could deny China a quick and easy victory  
  2. A US military that can defeat the Chinese invasion fleet or force them to withdraw.
  3. An alliance that can enhance the denial operation while increasing China's war cost or forcing it to expand its war regionwide. 
  4. A global punishment campaign that will crash China's economy and political system regardless of the war's outcome. 
  5. Sufficient credibility to mount a nuclear war in the Western Pacific. 
  • ​​​​​​​Although the US and its partners are making real and historic progress in deterring China, they are still nascent. 
The Achilles Heel in the US's Deterrence Strategy
  • Taiwan is currently the weakest but most critical factor in the US's deterrence strategy. Although the US is increasing Taiwan's asymmetric defense capabilities that would delay or defeat invasion forces, it is sluggish. 
  • Taiwan's domestic political challenges and the US's military industry backlog further exacerbate Taiwan's deterrence preparedness and the ability to defend itself, making it an attractive target for Beijing. 
  • Although the US invested in military modernization and arsenal expansion, these changes are ongoing and may only be available by 2030. 
  • The US may have a capability gap against China as its current military inventory and platforms are lacking or aging as the PLA's reform bears fruit. ​​​​​​​
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