Many observers and policymakers warned that China will invade Taiwan by 2027 after cross-strait relations dipped and the US fostered closer ties with Taiwan. With less than three years, the US and its partners are lagging in mounting credible deterrence against a Chinese invasion of Taiwan. 

Taiwan the Flashpoint 

• Taiwan is critical in the technology supply chain, a symbol of democratic resistance against an authoritarian regime, and an unresolved legacy in the PRC's history. From a strategic viewpoint, Taiwan can be the US's chokepoint on China or a platform for China to expand its influence across the Asia-Pacific region.
• While previous leaders were patient in reclaiming Taiwan, Xi Jinping is not. He ordered the PLA to prepare sufficiently for a Taiwan invasion by 2027.
• China's increased military capabilities tilted the balance of military power in its favor, blunting any counter-invasion attempts and increasing its coercive options. Therefore, saving Taiwan from China became daunting for the US and its allies. 
•  Xi preferred to reunite Taiwan without resorting to military means. Although Xi used various coercive means short of war, his strategy did not work, especially when the Taiwanese rejected the idea of unification. With limited options left, Xi may consider brutal means to realize his unification ambition. 
• Washington understands the urgency of Taiwan's situation. A great-power war over Taiwan would be catastrophic, with heavy losses to all involved parties, severe global economic perils, and a possible nuclear escalation. Thus, the critical question is whether the US can deter a US-China conflict over Taiwan.