作者/Author(s): Bryan Clark and Dan Patt 

原文來源/Source: Foreign Policy 

日期/Date: 09/05/2023 

關鍵字/Keywords: Deterrence, Military, Defense

摘要:

科技蓬勃發展、全球共同議題與挑戰的興起,以及過時的軍事戰略,都削弱了美國對中國的軍事優勢。雖然有關美中開戰或中國侵台謠言甚囂塵上,但鑒於中國目前的不穩定狀況,上述事件可能不會很快發生。然而,美國仍必須加強其嚇阻戰略,因為傳統的拒止或嚇阻可能已經不切實際了,而中國在某些情況下已經佔有區域優勢。美國必須制定新的威懾策略來威懾和壓制中國在東亞的行動。 

 

重新開展國防宣傳 ​​​​​​​

  • ​​​​​​​在軍事理論中,政治作戰與心戰宣傳是一系列協調軍事和非軍事行動的作為,希望能透過這種宣傳方式達到特定目標。然而,五角大廈的宣傳已經成為其維持軍事預算或撥款的工具,而不是定義其戰略以塑造中國領導人的認知。
  • 相較來說,中國就有較明確的軍事活動,如頻繁入侵台灣的防空識別區、入侵演習以及塑造國內外看法等網路數位化活動。 
  • 而美國則是透過擴大雙邊和多邊防務合作以及支持烏克蘭來開展軍事宣傳活動。然而,美國可以在這些合作的基礎上採取現實的行動,如創建新的聯合部隊態勢、不同的演習或測試新的軍事能力,以削弱中國的信心並觀察其反應。
  • 美國可以使用資訊技術分析揭示中國軍事弱點及易受攻擊的地方,就跟冷戰期間美蘇對抗時做的一樣。 
  • 美國應當恢復五角大樓的全域聯合指揮與控制計畫。
  • 為了進一步阻止中國,美國可以集中在兩個主要活動:
  1. ​​​​​​​破壞解放軍切斷美國通訊和後勤風險的戰略。
  2. 展示美國及其盟國做好了打持久戰的準備,不讓中國獲得快速或低成本的勝利。
  • 美國應優先考慮勸阻與嚇阻,降低中國採取軍事行動的意願。然而,美國也必須學會與中國共存,以確保全球和平。 
相關資料https://www.hudson.org/defense-strategy/campaigning-dissuade-applying-emerging-technologies-engage-succeed-information-age-bryan-clark-dan-patt
 

Summary:  

Technology advancement, increased global challenges, and outdated military strategy have corroded the US's military superiority over China. Although there are talks of a possible US-China war or Chinese invasion of Taiwan, it is not imminent, given China's current precarious condition. However, the US must still ramp up its deterrence strategy, provided its traditional deterrence through denial may be impractical and China has an increasing regional advantage over the US in certain scenarios. Instead of preparing for a pyrrhic victory, the US must devise new deterrence strategies to deter and suppress China in East Asia. 

Renewed Defense Campaigning

  • Campaigning in a military doctrine is a series of orchestrated military and nonmilitary actions to reach specific goals. However, the Pentagon's campaigning has become a tool to justify its military budget or appropriation instead of defining its strategy to shape Chinese leaders' perceptions. 
  • China has a clear military campaign, such as frequent intrusions into Taiwan's ADIZ, invasion exercises, and digital campaigns that shape domestic and foreign perceptions. 
  • The US has its campaign through bilateral and multilateral defense cooperation expansion and support for Ukraine. However, the US can build on these cooperations with realistic actions such as creating new joint force posture, different exercises, or testing new military capabilities to erode Chinese confidence and examine its responses. 
  • The US can use information technologies to analyze and reveal China's military weaknesses and vulnerabilities, as it did to the Soviet Union during the Cold War. 
  • The US should also renew the Pentagon's Joint All-Domain Command and Control initiative.
  • To dissuade China further, the US can focus on two main campaigns: 
  1. Undermine PLA's strategy of severing US communications and logistics vulnerabilities. 
  2. Demonstrate the US's and its allies' readiness for a protracted war to deny China a quick or cheap victory. ​​​​​​​
  • The US should prioritize deterrence by dissuasion to lower China's preference for military action. However, the US must learn to coexist with China to ensure global peace.